资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

PML’s researchers worked on the project, developing the project’s physical and biogeochemical short-, medium- and long-term scenarios. Researchers also worked on predictions of how climate change may affect commercial fish distribution and productivity, fisheries- aquaculture interaction and the aquatic sector’s future relevance to national economies.





The report’s results mean that fishery & aquaculture businesses and decision-makers in these Blue Growth sectors can now better anticipate, prepare, and adapt to climate change and identify future opportunities.
Some of the results found in the report include:

• details of the physical, biogeochemical, biological impacts of climate change on fish and shellfish on 37 valuable fishery and aquaculture species
• estimates of the profitability of a variety of fleets (mixed- or single-species demersal and pelagic fisheries) across five regional seas using four climate change scenarios
• 10 species- and region-specific ‘Typical Farms’ and calculated the economic consequences of four PESTEL (political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal) climate change scenarios
• vulnerability rankings for the European aquaculture sector based on physiological tolerance of nine key species and national economic data for 22 nations
• projections of how climate change will affect the global fishmeal and fish oil trade
• bottom-up (industry driven) and top-down (policy) solutions

The CERES project (Climate change and European aquatic RESources) was funded under the EU Horizon 2020 programme from 2016 to 2020. CERES was designed to advance a cause-and-effect understanding of how climate change will influence European fish and shellfish resources and the economic activities depending on them.

More than 150 scientists from 26 partner institutions in 15 countries participated in this four-year project. The project was coordinated at the University of Hamburg and partners included national research laboratories, universities and industry members from the aquaculture (five partners) and fisheries (two partners) sectors and additional stakeholders.