Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL074984 |
Predictability at intraseasonal time scale | |
Krishnamurthy, V.1; Sharma, A. S.2 | |
2017-08-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:16 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Establishing the predictability of the climate system beyond the weather time scale of about 10days is essential for extended range prediction. To overcome the limitation imposed by deterministic chaos on long-range prediction, we exploit the near-oscillatory behavior of monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) and other such phenomena in the tropical climate. These are nonlinear oscillations in the time range of 30-60days. Based on the phase space reconstruction method of nonlinear dynamical systems theory, we have developed a prediction model using the time series of MISO. We demonstrate that the Indian monsoon intraseasonal oscillation can be predicted with more accuracy at extended range. The phase space reconstruction model performs better than the Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in predicting the MISO. Our results show that intraseasonal variability can be modeled as a low-dimensional dynamical system and demonstrate extended predictability of climate. |
英文关键词 | predictability of climate phase space reconstruction tropical intraseasonal oscillation Indian monsoon |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000410658800051 |
WOS关键词 | GRIDDED RAINFALL DATA ; ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTABILITY ; OSCILLATIONS ; PATTERNS ; WIND |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/27190 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.George Mason Univ, Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA; 2.Univ Maryland, Dept Astron, College Pk, MD 20742 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Krishnamurthy, V.,Sharma, A. S.. Predictability at intraseasonal time scale[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(16). |
APA | Krishnamurthy, V.,&Sharma, A. S..(2017).Predictability at intraseasonal time scale.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(16). |
MLA | Krishnamurthy, V.,et al."Predictability at intraseasonal time scale".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.16(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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