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DOI | [db:DOI] |
Economics Is All About Disruption | |
Matthew P. Goodman | |
2020-05-28 | |
出版年 | 2020 |
国家 | 美国 |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 资源环境 |
英文摘要 | Economics Is All About DisruptionMay 28, 2020 Since the first caveman sharpened a stone into a tool, economics has involved disruption. New technologies create innovative ways of doing business and displace old ones. The Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter coined a phrase for this: “creative destruction.” The term encompasses both the benign and harmful dimensions of economic disruption: when the forest burns, many trees are destroyed, but new growth is enabled. The key to progress is ensuring that there are more winners than losers from disruptive change and that the latter benefit from the broader gains in prosperity. The Covid-19 pandemic feels more destructive than creative at the moment. That is certainly true when it comes to the toll in human lives: over 5 million cases and 350,000 deaths worldwide as of this writing. And the economic devastation is also profound, whether measured by the expected sharp drop in global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 or the nearly 40 million Americans who have lost their jobs since mid-March. The longer-term implications of the pandemic for society, international relations, and the global economy are less certain. Change is likely in all these areas, but past crises suggest we are exaggerating certain effects and underestimating others. The changes in air travel following 9/11 turned out to be inconveniences rather than fundamental breaks; on the other hand, it is only in hindsight that we can see how much the terrorist attacks prompted a 20-year shift in America’s engagement in the world. In this crisis as well, both benign and harmful forces will be at play, and it is not clear which will dominate where. In some cases, the pandemic will accelerate harmful trends already underway; in others, it will create new opportunities not imagined before the crisis. How individual countries respond to this moment may very well determine their place in the post-Covid-19 global economy. Government policy choices tilt the balance between benefits and costs. Intervene too much, and the disruption could be amplified or new problems created; not enough, and the pain will be prolonged and opportunities missed. For U.S. international economic policymakers, getting the balance right is likely to be especially important in a few key areas:
These and other disruptive forces will be among the topics explored in a new biweekly series of live webcasts at CSIS called “Economy Disrupted.” In each episode, my colleague Stephanie Segal and I will talk to a prominent economic thinker about one of these challenges and try to make sense of it for non-economists. The web series, kicking off on June 1, will be a marquee offering of the new Economics Program at CSIS. Building on four decades of work in the Simon Chair in Political Economy and including the same strong team, the Economics Program will seek to illuminate the role of economics in international affairs and offer practical policy ideas to enhance U.S. and global prosperity and security. We’re excited to set out on this new journey and hope you will join us. Matthew P. Goodman is senior vice president and runs the economics program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2020 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. |
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来源平台 | Center for Strategic & International Studies |
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文献类型 | 科技报告 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/271778 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Matthew P. Goodman. Economics Is All About Disruption,2020. |
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