资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Over the past half century, migratory birds in North America have shown divergent population trends relative to resident species, with the former declining rapidly and the latter increasing. The role that climate change has played in these observed trends is not well understood, despite significant warming over this period. We used 43 y of monitoring data to fit dynamic species distri- bution models and quantify the rate of latitudinal range shifts in 32 species of birds native to eastern North America. Since the early 1970s, species that remain in North America through- out the year, including both resident and migratory species, appear to have responded to climate change through both col- onization of suitable area at the northern leading edge of their breeding distributions and adaption in place at the southern trail- ing edges. Neotropical migrants, in contrast, have shown the opposite pattern: contraction at their southern trailing edges and no measurable shifts in their northern leading edges. As a result, the latitudinal distributions of temperate -wintering species have increased while the latitudinal distributions of neotropical migrants have decreased. These results raise important ques- tions about the mechanisms that determine range boundaries of neotropical migrants and suggest that these species may be par- ticularly vulnerable to future climate change. Our results highlight the potential importance of climate change during the nonbreed- ing season in constraining the response of migratory species to temperature changes at both the trailing and leading edges of their breeding distributions. Future research on the interactions between breeding and nonbreeding climate change is urgently needed.