Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-20-6159-2020 |
Developing a novel hybrid model for the estimation of surface 8 h ozone (O-3) across the remote Tibetan Plateau during 2005-2018 | |
Li, Rui1; Zhao, Yilong1; Zhou, Wenhui1; Meng, Ya1; Zhang, Ziyu1; Fu, Hongbo1,2,3 | |
2020-05-26 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS |
ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 20期号:10页码:6159-6175 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | We developed a two-stage model called the random-forest-generalised additive model (RF-GAM), based on satellite data, meteorological factors, and other geographical covariates, to predict the surface 8 h O-3 concentrations across the remote Tibetan Plateau. The 10-fold cross-validation result suggested that RF-GAM showed excellent performance, with the highest R-2 value (0.76) and lowest root-mean-square error (RMSE) (14.41 mu g m(-3)), compared with other seven machine-learning models. The predictive performance of RF-GAM showed significant seasonal discrepancy, with the highest R-2 value observed in summer (0.74), followed by winter (0.69) and autumn (0.67), and the lowest one in spring (0.64). Additionally, the unlearning ground-observed O-3 data collected from open-access websites were applied to test the transferring ability of the novel model and confirmed that the model was robust in predicting the surface 8 h O-3 concentration during other periods (R-2=0.67, RMSE = 25.68 mu g m(-3)). RF-GAM was then used to predict the daily 8 h O-3 level over the Tibetan Plateau during 2005-2018 for the first time. It was found that the estimated O-3 concentration displayed a slow increase, from 64.74 +/- 8.30 mu g m(-3) to 66.45 +/- 8.67 mu g m(-3) from 2005 to 2015, whereas it decreased from the peak to 65.87 +/- 8.52 mu g m(-3) during 2015-2018. Besides this, the estimated 8 h O-3 concentrations exhibited notable spatial variation, with the highest values in some cities of the northern Tibetan Plateau, such as Huangnan (73.48 +/- 4.53 mu g m(-3)) and Hainan (72.24 +/- 5.34 mu g m(-3)), followed by the cities in the central region, including Lhasa (65.99 +/- 7.24 mu g m(-3)) and Shigatse (65.15 +/- 6.14 mu g m(-3)), and the lowest O-3 concentration occurred in a city of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau called Aba (55.17 +/- 12.77 mu g m(-3)). Based on the 8 h O-3 critical value (100 mu g m(-3)) provided by the World Health Organization (WHO), we further estimated the annual mean nonattainment days over the Tibetan Plateau. It should be noted that most of the cities on the Tibetan Plateau had excellent air quality, while several cities (e.g. Huangnan, Haidong, and Guoluo) still suffered from more than 40 nonattainment days each year, which should be given more attention in order to alleviate local O-3 pollution. The results shown herein confirm that the novel hybrid model improves the prediction accuracy and can be applied to assess the potential health risk, particularly in remote regions with few monitoring sites. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000537577300005 |
WOS关键词 | GROUND-LEVEL ; PM2.5 CONCENTRATIONS ; SPATIAL-DISTRIBUTION ; PREMATURE MORTALITY ; TROPOSPHERIC OZONE ; PM1 CONCENTRATIONS ; RELATIVE-HUMIDITY ; SELECTION METHOD ; DECADAL CHANGES ; AIR-POLLUTANTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/271619 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Dept Environm Sci & Engn, Shanghai Key Lab Atmospher Particle Pollut & Prev, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, CICAEET, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China; 3.Shanghai Inst Pollut Control & Ecol Secur, Shanghai 200092, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Rui,Zhao, Yilong,Zhou, Wenhui,et al. Developing a novel hybrid model for the estimation of surface 8 h ozone (O-3) across the remote Tibetan Plateau during 2005-2018[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2020,20(10):6159-6175. |
APA | Li, Rui,Zhao, Yilong,Zhou, Wenhui,Meng, Ya,Zhang, Ziyu,&Fu, Hongbo.(2020).Developing a novel hybrid model for the estimation of surface 8 h ozone (O-3) across the remote Tibetan Plateau during 2005-2018.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,20(10),6159-6175. |
MLA | Li, Rui,et al."Developing a novel hybrid model for the estimation of surface 8 h ozone (O-3) across the remote Tibetan Plateau during 2005-2018".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 20.10(2020):6159-6175. |
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