Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105061 |
Evaluation of global climate models for precipitation projection in sub-Himalaya region of Pakistan | |
Zafar Iqbal, Shamsuddin Shahid, Kamal Ahmed, Tarmizi Ismail, ... Waqas Johar | |
2020-05-30 | |
发表期刊 | Atmospheric Research |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | The selection of global climate models (GCMs) for a region remained a difficult step in climate change studies. A state-of-the-art Support Vector Machine Recursive Feature Elimination (SVM-RFE) algorithm is proposed in this paper for GCM selection. The ranking of GCMs obtained using SVM-RFE was compared to that obtained using entropy-based similarity assessment index known as Symmetrical Uncertainty (SU). The study was conducted in the sub-Himalayan region of Pakistan where a reliable projection of climate is highly significant for water resources management in the entire western part of South Asia. The RF-based regression model was employed to generate a multi-model ensemble (MME) mean of the top-ranked GCMs. The MME mean projection was utilized to estimate the spatiotemporal changes in annual precipitation in comparison with precipitation of 1961–2000 for various representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The SVM-RF selected five GCMs (MIROC5, EC-EARTH, CNRM-CM5, BCC-CSM1.1(m) and BCC-CSM1.1) as most suitable for climate change projections in the study area. Obtained results were found to collaborate well with the results of multiple conventional statistical metrics. The MME mean projections revealed precipitation alteration between −1% and 18% during 2020–2059, and 0 and 24% during 2060–2099 for different RCPs. Precipitation was projected to increase up to 20% in the north whereas a decrease up-to −16% in the south. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/271572 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zafar Iqbal, Shamsuddin Shahid, Kamal Ahmed, Tarmizi Ismail, ... Waqas Johar. Evaluation of global climate models for precipitation projection in sub-Himalaya region of Pakistan[J]. Atmospheric Research,2020. |
APA | Zafar Iqbal, Shamsuddin Shahid, Kamal Ahmed, Tarmizi Ismail, ... Waqas Johar.(2020).Evaluation of global climate models for precipitation projection in sub-Himalaya region of Pakistan.Atmospheric Research. |
MLA | Zafar Iqbal, Shamsuddin Shahid, Kamal Ahmed, Tarmizi Ismail, ... Waqas Johar."Evaluation of global climate models for precipitation projection in sub-Himalaya region of Pakistan".Atmospheric Research (2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论