Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1916545117 |
Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse | |
Barfuss, Wolfra1,2,3,4; Donges, Jonathan F.1,5; Vasconcelos, Vitor V.6,7,8; Kurths, Juergen2,9; Levin, Simon A.6 | |
2020-05-20 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA |
ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 117期号:23页码:12915-12922 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; Sweden; USA; Russia |
英文摘要 | We will need collective action to avoid catastrophic climate change, and this will require valuing the long term as well as the short term. Shortsightedness and uncertainty have hindered progress in resolving this collective action problem and have been recognized as important barriers to cooperation among humans. Here, we propose a coupled social-ecological dilemma to investigate the interdependence of three well-identified components of this cooperation problem: 1) timescales of collapse and recovery in relation to time preferences regarding future outcomes, 2) the magnitude of the impact of collapse, and 3) the number of actors in the collective. We find that, under a sufficiently severe and time-distant collapse, how much the actors care for the future can transform the game from a tragedy of the commons into one of coordination, and even into a comedy of the commons in which cooperation dominates. Conversely, we also find conditions under which even strong concern for the future still does not transform the problem from tragedy to comedy. For a large number of participating actors, we find that the critical collapse impact, at which these game regime changes happen, converges to a fixed value of collapse impact per actor that is independent of the enhancement factor of the public good, which is usually regarded as the driver of the dilemma. Our results not only call for experimental testing but also help explain why polarization in beliefs about human-caused climate change can threaten global cooperation agreements. |
英文关键词 | social dilemma stochastic game tipping element time preferences |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000545949100028 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PUBLIC-GOODS ; TIME ; UNCERTAINTY ; EVOLUTION ; COOPERATION ; GOVERNANCE ; DECISIONS ; DYNAMICS ; BEHAVIOR |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/270462 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Leibniz Assoc, Inst Climate Impact Res, Earth Syst Anal, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany; 2.Leibniz Assoc, Inst Climate Impact Res, Complex Sci, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany; 3.Max Planck Inst Math Sci, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany; 4.Humboldt Univ, Dept Phys, D-12489 Berlin, Germany; 5.Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, S-11419 Stockholm, Sweden; 6.Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 7.Princeton Univ, Andlinger Ctr Energy & Environm, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 8.Princeton Univ, Princeton Inst Int & Reg Studies, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 9.Saratov NG Chernyshevskii State Univ, Dept Biol, Saratov 410012, Russia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Barfuss, Wolfra,Donges, Jonathan F.,Vasconcelos, Vitor V.,et al. Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2020,117(23):12915-12922. |
APA | Barfuss, Wolfra,Donges, Jonathan F.,Vasconcelos, Vitor V.,Kurths, Juergen,&Levin, Simon A..(2020).Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,117(23),12915-12922. |
MLA | Barfuss, Wolfra,et al."Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 117.23(2020):12915-12922. |
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