Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL087539 |
Improving early estimates of large earthquake's final fault lengths and magnitudes leveraging source fault structural maturity information | |
Allie A. Hutchison; Maren Bö; se; Isabelle Manighetti | |
2020-05-24 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | Earthquake early warning would be improved if the final size of an on‐going earthquake could be predicted early in the rupture process. Previous research relies largely on parameters derived from seismic waveforms, resulting in widely varied estimates of how much of the rupture must be complete before final sizes can be predicted. We demonstrate here that incorporating prior information on along‐strike variation in source fault structural maturity helps improve constraints on the earthquake's final size. Using surface slip profiles from 26 large continental earthquakes worldwide, we derive a generic empirical relation between earthquake slip, rupture length, and along‐strike variability in source fault maturity. Using this equation, we fit successive slip profiles developing during each earthquake and find that, on average, we predict the final length and magnitude of an earthquake once it has reached ~20% of its total length. Our findings thus demonstrate a clear determinism in the rupture process. Earthquake early warning would be improved if the final size of an on‐going earthquake could be predicted early in the rupture process. Previous research relies largely on parameters derived from seismic waveforms, resulting in widely varied estimates of how much of the rupture must be complete before final sizes can be predicted. We demonstrate here that incorporating prior information on along‐strike variation in source fault structural maturity helps improve constraints on the earthquake's final size. Using surface slip profiles from 26 large continental earthquakes worldwide, we derive a generic empirical relation between earthquake slip, rupture length, and along‐strike variability in source fault maturity. Using this equation, we fit successive slip profiles developing during each earthquake and find that, on average, we predict the final length and magnitude of an earthquake once it has reached ~20% of its total length. Our findings thus demonstrate a clear determinism in the rupture process. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/270437 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Allie A. Hutchison,Maren Bö,se,et al. Improving early estimates of large earthquake's final fault lengths and magnitudes leveraging source fault structural maturity information[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2020. |
APA | Allie A. Hutchison,Maren Bö,se,&Isabelle Manighetti.(2020).Improving early estimates of large earthquake's final fault lengths and magnitudes leveraging source fault structural maturity information.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Allie A. Hutchison,et al."Improving early estimates of large earthquake's final fault lengths and magnitudes leveraging source fault structural maturity information".Geophysical Research Letters (2020). |
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