Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018GL079827 |
Control of Ocean Temperature on Jakobshavn Isbrae's Present and Future Mass Loss | |
Bondzio, Johannes H.1; Morlighem, Mathieu1; Seroussi, Helene2; Wood, Michael H.1; Mouginot, Jeremie1,3 | |
2018-12-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:23页码:12912-12921 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; France |
英文摘要 | Large uncertainties in model parameterizations and input data sets make projections of future sea level rise contributions of outlet glaciers challenging. Here we introduce a novel technique for weighing large ensemble model simulations that uses information of key observables. The approach is robust to input errors and yields calibrated means and error estimates of a glacier's mass balance. We apply the technique to Jakobshavn Isbrae, using a model that includes a dynamic calving law, and closely reproduce the observed behavior from 1985 to 2018 by forcing the model with ocean temperatures only. Our calibrated projection suggests that the glacier will continue to retreat and contribute about 5.1 mm to eustatic sea level rise by 2100 under present-day climatic forcing. Our analysis shows that the glacier's future evolution will strongly depend on the ambient oceanic setting. Plain Language Summary Projections of future sea level rise are important planning information for coastal communities and ecosystems. Large uncertainties in model parameterizations and input data sets make the projections of the contributions of outlet glaciers and ice sheets challenging. Jakobshavn Isbrae in West Greenland is the world's fastest glacier, which retreated for more than 20 km and contributed alone more than 0.1 mm per year to sea level rise after its floating ice tongue broke up at the turn of this millennium. We use a novel technique to calibrate model simulations of Jakobshavn Isbrae using a record of observations in order to (a) understand the causes triggering its recent retreat and (b) produce weighted estimates of the glacier's future contribution to sea level rise. Our analysis shows that the glacier behavior is largely controlled by the oceanic thermal forcing and that its future evolution will strongly depend on the sustained intrusion of warm waters in its fjord. We project that the glacier will contribute an average of 5.1 mm to global sea level rise until 2100 under present-day climatic forcing. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000454296600030 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-LEVEL RISE ; GREENLAND ICE-SHEET ; WEST GREENLAND ; CALVING DYNAMICS ; BED TOPOGRAPHY ; GLACIERS ; MODEL ; ACCELERATION ; MECHANISMS ; SPEEDUP |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/27040 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA 92697 USA; 2.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA USA; 3.Inst Geosci Environnement, Grenoble, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bondzio, Johannes H.,Morlighem, Mathieu,Seroussi, Helene,et al. Control of Ocean Temperature on Jakobshavn Isbrae's Present and Future Mass Loss[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(23):12912-12921. |
APA | Bondzio, Johannes H.,Morlighem, Mathieu,Seroussi, Helene,Wood, Michael H.,&Mouginot, Jeremie.(2018).Control of Ocean Temperature on Jakobshavn Isbrae's Present and Future Mass Loss.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(23),12912-12921. |
MLA | Bondzio, Johannes H.,et al."Control of Ocean Temperature on Jakobshavn Isbrae's Present and Future Mass Loss".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.23(2018):12912-12921. |
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