Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL076092 |
Assessing the Decadal Predictability of Land and Ocean Carbon Uptake | |
Seferian, Roland; Berthet, Sarah; Chevallier, Matthieu | |
2018-03-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:5页码:2455-2466 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France |
英文摘要 | The decadal predictability of carbon fluxes has been examined over continents and oceans using a "perfect model" approach based on a 400 year preindustrial simulation and five 10-member ensembles from the Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques-Earth System Model version 1. From these experiments, we find that the global land uptake and ocean carbon uptake are potentially predictable by up to six years, with a median predictability horizon of four years. Predictability of global carbon uptake is prominently driven by the ocean's predictability. The difference in predictability between ocean and land carbon fluxes stems from the relative capability of ocean or land to generate low-frequency fluctuations in carbon flux. Indeed, ocean carbon fluxes display low-frequency variability that emerges from the year-to-year variability in the North Atlantic, the North Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean carbon uptake can be predicted up to six years in advance and explains most of the global carbon uptake predictability. |
英文关键词 | decadal predictability carbon fluxes internal variability Earth system model |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428402400038 |
WOS关键词 | POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; NATURAL VARIABILITY ; CLIMATE PREDICTION ; SEA-ICE ; CO2 ; MODEL ; VEGETATION ; FLUXES ; ASSIMILATION |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26660 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Meteo France, Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, CNRS, Toulouse, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Seferian, Roland,Berthet, Sarah,Chevallier, Matthieu. Assessing the Decadal Predictability of Land and Ocean Carbon Uptake[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(5):2455-2466. |
APA | Seferian, Roland,Berthet, Sarah,&Chevallier, Matthieu.(2018).Assessing the Decadal Predictability of Land and Ocean Carbon Uptake.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(5),2455-2466. |
MLA | Seferian, Roland,et al."Assessing the Decadal Predictability of Land and Ocean Carbon Uptake".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.5(2018):2455-2466. |
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