Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018GL078035 |
Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends | |
Maycock, Amanda C.1; 39;Connor, Fiona2 | |
2018-09-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:18页码:9919-9933 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; USA; Austria; Finland; Japan; Germany; Italy; France; New Zealand; Canada; Switzerland |
英文摘要 | Simulated stratospheric temperatures over the period 1979-2016 in models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative are compared with recently updated and extended satellite data sets. The multimodel mean global temperature trends over 1979-2005 are -0.88 +/- 0.23, -0.70 +/- 0.16, and -0.50 +/- 0.12K/decade for the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) channels 3 (similar to 40-50 km), 2 (similar to 35-45 km), and 1 (similar to 25-35 km), respectively (with 95% confidence intervals). These are within the uncertainty bounds of the observed temperature trends from two reprocessed SSU data sets. In the lower stratosphere, the multimodel mean trend in global temperature for the Microwave Sounding Unit channel 4 (similar to 13-22 km) is -0.25 +/- 0.12 K/decade over 1979-2005, consistent with observed estimates from three versions of this satellite record. The models and an extended satellite data set comprised of SSU with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A show weaker global stratospheric cooling over 1998-2016 compared to the period of intensive ozone depletion (1979-1997). This is due to the reduction in ozone-induced cooling from the slowdown of ozone trends and the onset of ozone recovery since the late 1990s. In summary, the results show much better consistency between simulated and satellite-observed stratospheric temperature trends than was reported by Thompson et al. (2012, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11579) for the previous versions of the SSU record and chemistry-climate models. The improved agreement mainly comes from updates to the satellite records; the range of stratospheric temperature trends over 1979-2005 simulated in Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative models is comparable to the previous generation of chemistry-climate models. Plain Language Summary A previous analysis by Thompson et al. (2012, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11579) showed substantial differences between satellite-observed and model-simulated stratospheric cooling trends since the late 1970s. Here we compare recently revised and extended satellite temperature records with new simulations from 14 chemistry-climate models. The results show much better agreement in the magnitude of stratospheric cooling over 1979-2005 between models and observations. This cooling was predominantly driven by increasing greenhouse gases and declining stratospheric ozone levels. An extended satellite temperature record and the chemistry-climate models show weaker global stratospheric cooling over 1998-2016 compared to 1979-1997. This is due to the reduction in ozone-induced cooling from the slowdown of ozone trends and the onset of ozone recovery since the late 1990s. There are larger differences in the latitudinal structure of past stratospheric temperature trends due to the effects of unforced atmospheric variability. In summary, the results show much better consistency between simulated and satellite-observed stratospheric temperature trends than was reported by Thompson et al. (2012, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11579 ) for the previous versions of the satellite record and last generation of chemistry-climate models. The improved agreement mainly comes from updates to the satellite records, while the range of simulated trends is comparable to the previous generation of models. |
英文关键词 | temperature trends stratosphere greenhouse gases satellites ozone depletion chemistry-climate model |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000447761300064 |
WOS关键词 | CHEMISTRY-CLIMATE MODEL ; BREWER-DOBSON CIRCULATION ; GPS RADIO OCCULTATION ; OZONE RECOVERY ; SOUNDING UNIT ; DATA RECORDS ; VERSION ; SIMULATION ; CONSTRUCTION ; RADIOSONDES |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26628 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England; 2.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Atmospher Chem Observat & Modeling Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 3.Karl Franzens Univ Graz, Wegener Ctr Climate & Global Change, Graz, Austria; 4.Karl Franzens Univ Graz, Inst Phys, Inst Geophys Astrophys & Meteorol, Graz, Austria; 5.Finish Meteorol Inst, Helsinki, Finland; 6.Univ Alabama, Earth Syst Sci Ctr, Huntsville, AL 35899 USA; 7.Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England; 8.Colorado State Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA; 9.NOAA, Washington, DC USA; 10.Univ Cambridge, Dept Chem, Cambridge, England; 11.Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Cambridge, England; 12.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 13.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 14.Deutsch Zentrum Luft & Raumfahrt, Inst Phys Atmosphare, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany; 15.Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 16.Univ Aquila, Ctr Excellence CETEMPS, Laquila, Italy; 17.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Steinbuch Ctr Comp, Karlsruhe, Germany; 18.Meteo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; 19.Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res NIWA, Wellington, New Zealand; 20.NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD USA; 21.Univ Aquila, Dept Phys & Chem Sci, Laquila, Italy; 22.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Climate Res Branch, Montreal, PQ, Canada; 23.Bodeker Sci, Christchurch, New Zealand; 24.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland; 25.Univ Canterbury, Sch Phys & Chem Sci, Christchurch, New Zealand; 26.Phys Meteorol Observ Davos, World Radiat Ctr, Davos, Switzerland; 27.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 28.Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Maycock, Amanda C.,39;Connor, Fiona. Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(18):9919-9933. |
APA | Maycock, Amanda C.,&39;Connor, Fiona.(2018).Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(18),9919-9933. |
MLA | Maycock, Amanda C.,et al."Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.18(2018):9919-9933. |
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