Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL072706 |
The influence of dynamical variability on the observed Brewer-Dobson circulation trend | |
Hardiman, Steven C.1; Lin, Pu2,3; Scaife, Adam A.1; Dunstone, Nick J.1; Ren, Hong-Li4 | |
2017-03-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; USA; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | The strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is predicted to increase due to climate change. However, this increase has yet to be robustly detected in observational analyses. In this study a long control simulation is used to calculate the Time of Emergence of the BDC trend and how much of that trend may be masked by dynamical variability in current observations. A Time of Emergence of around 30years is found (assuming a 2%/decade trend in the BDC), similar to the length of current reanalysis data sets. However, the discrepancies in vertical velocities between different reanalysis products remain far larger than any predicted trend. Furthermore, dynamical variability can completely mask the BDC trend on time scales shorter than around 12years. Thus, more robust observational analyses of vertical velocity are likely to be needed for at least the next decade before detection of a statistically significant trend can be expected. |
英文关键词 | Brewer-Dobson circulation variability trend Time of Emergence |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000399762700032 |
WOS关键词 | AGE ; STRATOSPHERE ; SCENARIOS ; ENSEMBLE ; AIR |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26599 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England; 2.Princeton Univ, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 3.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA; 4.China Meteorol Adm, Lab Climate Studies, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hardiman, Steven C.,Lin, Pu,Scaife, Adam A.,et al. The influence of dynamical variability on the observed Brewer-Dobson circulation trend[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(6). |
APA | Hardiman, Steven C.,Lin, Pu,Scaife, Adam A.,Dunstone, Nick J.,&Ren, Hong-Li.(2017).The influence of dynamical variability on the observed Brewer-Dobson circulation trend.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(6). |
MLA | Hardiman, Steven C.,et al."The influence of dynamical variability on the observed Brewer-Dobson circulation trend".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.6(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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