GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/2017GL075875
What Is Better Than Coulomb Failure Stress? A Ranking of Scalar Static Stress Triggering Mechanisms from 10(5) Mainshock-Aftershock Pairs
Meade, Brendan J.1,2; DeVries, Phoebe M. R.1; Faller, Jeremy2; Viegas, Fernanda2; Wattenberg, Martin2
2017-11-28
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2017
卷号44期号:22
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Aftershocks may be triggered by the stresses generated by preceding mainshocks. The temporal frequency and maximum size of aftershocks are well described by the empirical Omori and Bath laws, but spatial patterns are more difficult to forecast. Coulomb failure stress is perhaps the most common criterion invoked to explain spatial distributions of aftershocks. Here we consider the spatial relationship between patterns of aftershocks and a comprehensive list of 38 static elastic scalar metrics of stress (including stress tensor invariants, maximum shear stress, and Coulomb failure stress) from 213 coseismic slip distributions worldwide. The rates of true-positive and false-positive classification of regions with and without aftershocks are assessed with receiver operating characteristic analysis. We infer that the stress metrics that are most consistent with observed aftershock locations are maximum shear stress and the magnitude of the second and third invariants of the stress tensor. These metrics are significantly better than random assignment at a significance level of 0.005 in over 80% of the slip distributions. In contrast, the widely used Coulomb failure stress criterion is distinguishable from random assignment in only 51-64% of the slip distributions. These results suggest that a number of alternative scalar metrics are better predictors of aftershock locations than classic Coulomb failure stress change.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000419102300022
WOS关键词NORTH ANATOLIAN FAULT ; SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ; EARTHQUAKE ; DEFORMATION ; LANDERS ; SEISMICITY ; EVOLUTION ; MODERATE ; SHOCK
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26571
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, 20 Oxford St, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA;
2.Google Inc, Cambridge, MA 02142 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Meade, Brendan J.,DeVries, Phoebe M. R.,Faller, Jeremy,et al. What Is Better Than Coulomb Failure Stress? A Ranking of Scalar Static Stress Triggering Mechanisms from 10(5) Mainshock-Aftershock Pairs[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(22).
APA Meade, Brendan J.,DeVries, Phoebe M. R.,Faller, Jeremy,Viegas, Fernanda,&Wattenberg, Martin.(2017).What Is Better Than Coulomb Failure Stress? A Ranking of Scalar Static Stress Triggering Mechanisms from 10(5) Mainshock-Aftershock Pairs.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(22).
MLA Meade, Brendan J.,et al."What Is Better Than Coulomb Failure Stress? A Ranking of Scalar Static Stress Triggering Mechanisms from 10(5) Mainshock-Aftershock Pairs".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.22(2017).
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