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DOI | 10.1029/2018GL080619 |
The Effect of a Mainshock on the Size Distribution of the Aftershocks | |
Gulia, L.1; Rinaldi, A. P.1; Tormann, T.1; Vannucci, G.2; Enescu, B.3; Wiemer, S.1 | |
2018-12-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:24页码:13277-13287 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland; Italy; Japan |
英文摘要 | A systematic decay of the aftershock rate over time is one of the most fundamental empirical laws in Earth science. However, the equally fundamental effect of a mainshock on the size distribution of subsequent earthquakes has still not been quantified today and is therefore not used in earthquake hazard assessment. We apply a stacking approach to well-recorded earthquake sequences to extract this effect. Immediately after a mainshock, the mean size distribution of events, or b value, increases by 20-30%, considerably decreasing the chance of subsequent larger events. This increase is strongest in the immediate vicinity of the mainshock, decreasing rapidly with distance but only gradually over time. We present a model that explains these observations as a consequence of the stress changes in the surrounding area caused by the mainshocks slip. Our results have substantial implications for how seismic risk during earthquake sequences is assessed. Plain Language Summary The effect of a mainshock on the size distribution of subsequent earthquakes has not been quantified and is therefore not used in earthquake hazard assessment. To quantify this effect, we develop a stacking approach centered on the mainshock time and apply it to for 31 well-recorded aftershock sequences from around the world. We found that after a mainshock the earthquake size distribution shifts toward relative more smaller events, increasing the so-called b value by 20-30%. One of the consequences of our finding is that the rates of large aftershocks are overestimated by the currently used models. Our result is fully consistent with both laboratory measurements and modeling, and we present a conceptual model that explains our findings. |
英文关键词 | b value aftershocks stacking Reid theory differential stress earthquake hazard forecasting |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000456404600012 |
WOS关键词 | FREQUENCY-MAGNITUDE DISTRIBUTION ; LOG-A OBSERVATIONS ; EARTHQUAKE CATALOGS ; SHORT-TERM ; SPATIAL VARIABILITY ; SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ; RUPTURE LENGTH ; STRESS CHANGES ; B-VALUE ; MODELS |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26305 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.ETH, Swiss Seismol Serv, Zurich, Switzerland; 2.Ist Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol, Bologna, Italy; 3.Kyoto Univ, Dept Geophys, Kyoto, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gulia, L.,Rinaldi, A. P.,Tormann, T.,et al. The Effect of a Mainshock on the Size Distribution of the Aftershocks[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(24):13277-13287. |
APA | Gulia, L.,Rinaldi, A. P.,Tormann, T.,Vannucci, G.,Enescu, B.,&Wiemer, S..(2018).The Effect of a Mainshock on the Size Distribution of the Aftershocks.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(24),13277-13287. |
MLA | Gulia, L.,et al."The Effect of a Mainshock on the Size Distribution of the Aftershocks".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.24(2018):13277-13287. |
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