Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaca9e |
The impact of climate change policy on the risk of water stress in southern and eastern Asia | |
Gao, Xiang1; Schlosser, C. Adam1; Fant, Charles2; Strzepek, Kenneth1,2 | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The adequacy of freshwater resources remains a critical challenge for a sustainable and growing society. We present a self-consistent risk-based assessment of water availability and use under future climate change and socioeconomic growth by midcentury across southern and eastern Asia (SEA). We employ large ensemble scenarios from an integrated modeling framework that are consistent across the spectrum of regional climate, population, and economic projections. We find socioeconomic growth contributes to an increase in water stress across the entire ensemble. However, climate change drives the ensemble central tendency toward an increase in water stress in China but a reduction in India, with a considerable spread across the ensemble. Nevertheless, the most deleterious unabated climate-change impact is a low probability but salient extreme increase in water stress over China and India. In these outcomes, annual withdrawals will routinely exceed water-storage capacity. A modest greenhouse gas mitigation pathway eliminates the likelihood of these extreme outcomes and also benefits hundreds of millions of people at risk to various levels of water stress increase. Over SEA we estimate an additional 200 million people under threat of facing at least heavily water-stressed conditions from climate change and socioeconomic growth, but the mitigation scenario reduces the additional population-under-threat by 30% (60 million). Nevertheless, there remains a 1-in-2 chance that 100 million people across SEA experience a 50% increase in water stress and a 1-in-10 chance they experience a doubling of water stress. Therefore, widespread adaptive measures may be required over the coming decades to meet these unavoidable risks in water shortfalls. |
英文关键词 | climate change integrated model framework mitigation risk assessment socioeconomic developments Southern and Eastern Asia water scarcity |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000435633600006 |
WOS关键词 | RESOURCES ; UNCERTAINTIES ; MANAGEMENT ; FRAMEWORK ; SCARCITY ; DATASET ; FUTURE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26117 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA; 2.Ind Econ Inc, Cambridge, MA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gao, Xiang,Schlosser, C. Adam,Fant, Charles,et al. The impact of climate change policy on the risk of water stress in southern and eastern Asia[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(6). |
APA | Gao, Xiang,Schlosser, C. Adam,Fant, Charles,&Strzepek, Kenneth.(2018).The impact of climate change policy on the risk of water stress in southern and eastern Asia.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(6). |
MLA | Gao, Xiang,et al."The impact of climate change policy on the risk of water stress in southern and eastern Asia".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.6(2018). |
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