Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf8be |
Future changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projections | |
Pavlova, Vera1,2; Shkolnik, Igor2; Pikaleva, Anastasia2; Efimov, Sergey2; Karachenkova, Anna1; Kattsov, Vladimir2 | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Russia |
英文摘要 | An assessment is carried out of future changes in the agroclimatic conditions and crop productivity of spring wheat across the major grain-growing regions of European Russia. Calculations are conducted using a crop model driven by high-resolution, multiple realization regional climate change simulations under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. It has been shown that this scenario can lead to a future decrease in the yield of spring wheat by 9.1 +/- 2.3% (2030-2039), 10.3 +/- 3.2% (2050-2059), and 18.9 +/- 2.8% (2090-2099) as compared with the yield at the end of XX century. In the southeastern part of the region, where there are major spring wheat areas, the projected yield change is expected to be -6.7 +/- 3.0% by 2050-2059 and -21.5 +/- 3.1% by 2090-2099. Fertile lands in the Central Black-Earth region (southwest of Moscow) will suffer even more due to a significant increase in the aridity and decrease of the growing season. There the projected drop in yield is simulated to be 15.8 +/- 5.1% by 2050-2059 and 32.9 +/- 3.4% by 2090-2099. However, the major losses in total production (gross yield) are expected to occur in the Privolzhsky Federal District where the spring wheat areas amount to 87% of the total cultivated area in the region. |
英文关键词 | probabilistic regional climate projection large ensemble crop simulation model wheat yield |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000461222100002 |
WOS关键词 | RESPONSES ; IMPACTS ; WILL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26108 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.NRIAM, Obninsk, Russia; 2.Voeikov Main Geophys Observ MGO, St Petersburg, Russia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pavlova, Vera,Shkolnik, Igor,Pikaleva, Anastasia,et al. Future changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projections[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(3). |
APA | Pavlova, Vera,Shkolnik, Igor,Pikaleva, Anastasia,Efimov, Sergey,Karachenkova, Anna,&Kattsov, Vladimir.(2019).Future changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projections.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(3). |
MLA | Pavlova, Vera,et al."Future changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projections".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.3(2019). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论