资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Haze pollution over the past four decades in Southeast Asia is mainly a result of forest and peatland fires in Indonesia. The economic impacts of haze include adverse health effects and disruption to transport and tourism. Previous studies have used a variety of approaches to assess the economic impacts of haze and the forest fires more generally. But no study has used contingent valuation to assess non-market impacts of haze on individuals. Here we apply contingent valuation to estimate impacts of haze on Singapore, one of most severely affected countries. We used a double-bounded dichotomous-choice survey design and the Kaplan-Meier-Turnbull method to infer the distribution of Singaporeans' willingness to pay (WTP) for haze mitigation. Our estimate of mean individual WTP was 0.97% of annual income (n = 390). To calculate total national WTP, we stratified by income, the demographic variable most strongly related to individual WTP. The total WTP estimate was $643.5 million per year (95% CI [$527.7 million, $765.0 million]). This estimate is comparable in magnitude to previously estimated impacts of Indonesia's fires and also to the estimated costs of peatland protection and restoration. We recommend that our results be incorporated into future cost-benefit analyses of the fires and mitigation strategies.