Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7e6e |
Potential climate change impacts on fire intensity and key wildfire suppression thresholds in Canada | |
Wotton, B. M.1; Flannigan, M. D.2; Marshall, G. A.3 | |
2017-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:9 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | Much research has been carried out on the potential impacts of climate change on forest fire activity in the boreal forest. Indeed, there is a general consensus that, while change will vary regionally across the vast extent of the boreal, in general the fire environment will become more conducive to fire. Land management agencies must consider ways to adapt to these new conditions. This paper examines the impact of that changed fire environment on overall wildfire suppression capability. We use multiple General Circulation Models and carbon emission pathways to generate future fire environment scenarios for Canada's forested region. We then use these scenarios with the Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Prediction System and spatial coverages of the current forest fuel composition across the landscape to examine potential variation in key fire behaviour outputs that influence whether fire management resources can effectively suppress fire. Specifically, we evaluate how the potential for crown fire occurrence and active growth of fires changes with the changing climate. We also examine future fire behaviour through the lens of operational fire intensity thresholds used to guide decisions about resources effectiveness. Results indicate that the proportion of days in fire seasons with the potential for unmanageable fire will increase across Canada's forest, more than doubling in some regions in northern and eastern boreal forest. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000408504700002 |
WOS关键词 | DANGER RATING SYSTEM ; CROWN FIRE ; FOREST ; ONTARIO ; MODEL ; PACKAGE ; SPREAD |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26042 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Toronto, Fac Forestry, Nat Resources Canada Canadian Forest Serv, 33 Willcocks St, Toronto, ON M5S 3B3, Canada; 2.Univ Alberta, Dept Renewable Resources, 751 Gen Serv Bldg, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada; 3.Northern Forestry Ctr, Nat Resources Canada Canadian Forest Serv, 5320-122nd St, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wotton, B. M.,Flannigan, M. D.,Marshall, G. A.. Potential climate change impacts on fire intensity and key wildfire suppression thresholds in Canada[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(9). |
APA | Wotton, B. M.,Flannigan, M. D.,&Marshall, G. A..(2017).Potential climate change impacts on fire intensity and key wildfire suppression thresholds in Canada.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(9). |
MLA | Wotton, B. M.,et al."Potential climate change impacts on fire intensity and key wildfire suppression thresholds in Canada".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.9(2017). |
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