Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018GL079698 |
On the Connection Between Global Hydrologic Sensitivity and Regional Wet Extremes | |
Thackeray, Chad W.1; DeAngelis, Anthony M.1,2,3; Hall, Alex1; Swain, Daniel L.4,5; Qu, Xin1 | |
2018-10-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:20页码:11343-11351 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | A highly uncertain aspect of anthropogenic climate change is the rate at which the global hydrologic cycle intensifies. The future change in global-mean precipitation per degree warming, or hydrologic sensitivity, exhibits a threefold spread (1-3%/K) in current global climate models. In this study, we find that the intermodel spread in this value is associated with a significant portion of variability in future projections of extreme precipitation in the tropics, extending also into subtropical atmospheric river corridors. Additionally, there is a very tight intermodel relationship between changes in extreme and nonextreme precipitation, whereby models compensate for increasing extreme precipitation events by decreasing weak-moderate events. Another factor linked to changes in precipitation extremes is model resolution, with higher resolution models showing a larger increase in heavy extremes. These results highlight ways various aspects of hydrologic cycle intensification are linked in models and shed new light on the task of constraining precipitation extremes. Plain Language Summary The global water cycle is expected to intensify under climate change and can be generally characterized by greater rainfall and surface evaporation in the future. However, the rate at which the globally averaged precipitation increases is highly variable among different climate models. In this paper, we relate the intermodel variability in global water cycle intensification to differences in model projections of heavy precipitation in tropical and some extratropical regions. We also find that models consistently experience a trade-off between increasing heavy and decreasing light-moderate precipitation: Models with larger future increases in heavy precipitation exhibit greater compensating declines in light-moderate rainfall. Differences in heavy precipitation changes are also tied to model resolution. Our study helps to provide new insight on the factors shaping projections of future precipitation extremes, which have strong implications for water resources, natural hazard risks associated with flooding, and ecosystem stability. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000451510500062 |
WOS关键词 | PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; CLIMATE SENSITIVITY ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; FUTURE CHANGES ; CMIP5 ; CONSTRAINT ; INTENSITY ; INCREASE ; TRENDS ; CYCLE |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26023 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA; 2.NASA, Global Modeling & Assimilat Off, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD USA; 3.Sci Syst & Applicat Inc, Lanham, MD USA; 4.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Los Angeles, CA USA; 5.Nature Conservancy, 1815 N Lynn St, Arlington, VA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thackeray, Chad W.,DeAngelis, Anthony M.,Hall, Alex,et al. On the Connection Between Global Hydrologic Sensitivity and Regional Wet Extremes[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(20):11343-11351. |
APA | Thackeray, Chad W.,DeAngelis, Anthony M.,Hall, Alex,Swain, Daniel L.,&Qu, Xin.(2018).On the Connection Between Global Hydrologic Sensitivity and Regional Wet Extremes.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(20),11343-11351. |
MLA | Thackeray, Chad W.,et al."On the Connection Between Global Hydrologic Sensitivity and Regional Wet Extremes".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.20(2018):11343-11351. |
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