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DOI | 10.1029/2018GL081163 |
Early Forecast of Long-Period Ground Motions via Data Assimilation of Observed Ground Motions and Wave Propagation Simulations | |
Furumura, Takashi1; Maeda, Takuto2; Oba, Atsuki1 | |
2019-01-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:1页码:138-147 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan |
英文摘要 | We propose an efficient approach for the early forecast of long-period (> 3-10s) ground motions generated in sedimentary basins by large earthquakes based on the data assimilation of observed ground motions and finite-difference method simulations of seismic wave propagation in a 3-D heterogeneous structure. This approach uses the dense K-NET and KiK-net nationwide networks in Japan and a high-performance supercomputer to perform forecasts using the assimilated wavefields at speeds much faster than the actual wave propagation speed. Therefore, an early alert can be issued prior to the occurrence of strong motions in basins due to large, distant earthquakes. We validated the effectiveness of this data-assimilation-based forecast approach via numerical tests for the early forecast of long-period ground motions in central Tokyo using the observed waveform data from the Mw6.6 2007 Off Niigata and Mw9.0 2011 Off Tohoku earthquakes. Plain Language Summary Large and lengthy long-period (LP) ground motions generated in large basins during large earthquakes create a potential risk of damage in modern cities resulting from heavy shaking in high-rise buildings, long bridges, oil-storage tanks, and so on. Our paper proposes an efficient approach to forecast LP ground motions caused by distant, large earthquakes. This approach monitors the generation of LP ground motions from large earthquakes via the dense strong-motion networks across Japan. Then, the future propagation and amplification of LP ground motions in distant basins are forecasted using a supercomputer at speeds much faster than the actual wave speed. In this paper we demonstrates the forecasts test of LP ground motions in central Tokyo using real seismograph records from the Mw6.6 2007 Off Niigata and Mw9.0 2011 Off Tohoku earthquakes. |
英文关键词 | early forecast long-period ground motions FDM simulations strong ground motions 2007 Off Niigata earthquake 2011 Off Tohoku earthquake |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000456938600016 |
WOS关键词 | PREDICTION ; JAPAN ; TOKYO ; AREA |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25909 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Tokyo, Earthquake Res Inst, Tokyo, Japan; 2.Hirosaki Univ, Grad Sch Sci & Technol, Hirosaki, Aomori, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Furumura, Takashi,Maeda, Takuto,Oba, Atsuki. Early Forecast of Long-Period Ground Motions via Data Assimilation of Observed Ground Motions and Wave Propagation Simulations[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(1):138-147. |
APA | Furumura, Takashi,Maeda, Takuto,&Oba, Atsuki.(2019).Early Forecast of Long-Period Ground Motions via Data Assimilation of Observed Ground Motions and Wave Propagation Simulations.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(1),138-147. |
MLA | Furumura, Takashi,et al."Early Forecast of Long-Period Ground Motions via Data Assimilation of Observed Ground Motions and Wave Propagation Simulations".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.1(2019):138-147. |
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