资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The commitment to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C as set out in the Paris Agreement is widely regarded as ambitious and challenging. It has been proposed that reaching this target may require a number of actions, which could include some form of carbon removal or Solar Radiation Management in addition to strong emission reductions. Here we assess one theoretical solution using Solar Radiation Management to limit global mean warming to 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial temperatures and use the McArthur fire danger index to evaluate the change in fire danger. The results show that globally fire danger is reduced in most areas when temperatures are limited to 1.5 degrees C compared to 2.0 degrees C. The number of days where fire danger is "high" or above is reduced by up to 30 days/year on average, although there are regional variations. In certain regions, fire danger is increased, experiencing 31 more days above "high" fire danger.

Plain Language Summary The Paris Agreement outlined a commitment to limit the rise in global average temperature to well-below 2 degrees C compared to the preindustrial era and to strive to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C. This target is widely regarded as ambitious and challenging, and achieving it may require a number of actions, including engineering options to reduce the amount of the Sun's energy that reaches the Earth. Here we look at how one of these engineering options, in addition to a strong reduction in emissions, affects fire danger at 1.5 degrees C compared to 2.0 degrees C. The results show that fire danger is reduced in most areas of the world when temperatures are limited to 1.5 degrees C compared to 2.0 degrees C as expected, but in certain regions there are unexpected results. In some regions of the United States and Asia fire danger increases in the 1.5 degrees C scenario. This study highlights a need for thorough understanding of the potential impacts of pathways to achieve 1.5 degrees C, as the impacts may not always be positive.