GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/2016GL071565
The role of natural variability in projections of climate change impacts on US ozone pollution
Garcia-Menendez, Fernando1,2; Monier, Erwan2; Selin, Noelle E.2,3,4
2017-03-28
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2017
卷号44期号:6
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Climate change can impact air quality by altering the atmospheric conditions that determine pollutant concentrations. Over large regions of the U.S., projected changes in climate are expected to favor formation of ground-level ozone and aggravate associated health effects. However, modeling studies exploring air quality-climate interactions have often overlooked the role of natural variability, a major source of uncertainty in projections. Here we use the largest ensemble simulation of climate-induced changes in air quality generated to date to assess its influence on estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. ozone. We find that natural variability can significantly alter the robustness of projections of the future climate's effect on ozone pollution. In this study, a 15year simulation length minimum is required to identify a distinct anthropogenic-forced signal. Therefore, we suggest that studies assessing air quality impacts use multidecadal simulations or initial condition ensembles. With natural variability, impacts attributable to climate may be difficult to discern before midcentury or under stabilization scenarios.


英文关键词ozone air pollution climate change impacts natural variability model projections
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000399762700035
WOS关键词EASTERN UNITED-STATES ; AIR-QUALITY ; SURFACE OZONE ; FUTURE CLIMATE ; REGIONAL CLIMATE ; TROPOSPHERIC OZONE ; NORTH-AMERICA ; ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY ; INTERNAL VARIABILITY ; BIOGENIC EMISSIONS
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25803
专题气候变化
作者单位1.North Carolina State Univ, Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA;
2.MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA;
3.MIT, Inst Data Syst & Soc, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA;
4.MIT, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA USA
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GB/T 7714
Garcia-Menendez, Fernando,Monier, Erwan,Selin, Noelle E.. The role of natural variability in projections of climate change impacts on US ozone pollution[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(6).
APA Garcia-Menendez, Fernando,Monier, Erwan,&Selin, Noelle E..(2017).The role of natural variability in projections of climate change impacts on US ozone pollution.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(6).
MLA Garcia-Menendez, Fernando,et al."The role of natural variability in projections of climate change impacts on US ozone pollution".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.6(2017).
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