Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2016GL071565 |
The role of natural variability in projections of climate change impacts on US ozone pollution | |
Garcia-Menendez, Fernando1,2; Monier, Erwan2; Selin, Noelle E.2,3,4 | |
2017-03-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Climate change can impact air quality by altering the atmospheric conditions that determine pollutant concentrations. Over large regions of the U.S., projected changes in climate are expected to favor formation of ground-level ozone and aggravate associated health effects. However, modeling studies exploring air quality-climate interactions have often overlooked the role of natural variability, a major source of uncertainty in projections. Here we use the largest ensemble simulation of climate-induced changes in air quality generated to date to assess its influence on estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. ozone. We find that natural variability can significantly alter the robustness of projections of the future climate's effect on ozone pollution. In this study, a 15year simulation length minimum is required to identify a distinct anthropogenic-forced signal. Therefore, we suggest that studies assessing air quality impacts use multidecadal simulations or initial condition ensembles. With natural variability, impacts attributable to climate may be difficult to discern before midcentury or under stabilization scenarios. |
英文关键词 | ozone air pollution climate change impacts natural variability model projections |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000399762700035 |
WOS关键词 | EASTERN UNITED-STATES ; AIR-QUALITY ; SURFACE OZONE ; FUTURE CLIMATE ; REGIONAL CLIMATE ; TROPOSPHERIC OZONE ; NORTH-AMERICA ; ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY ; INTERNAL VARIABILITY ; BIOGENIC EMISSIONS |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25803 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.North Carolina State Univ, Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA; 2.MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA; 3.MIT, Inst Data Syst & Soc, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA; 4.MIT, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Garcia-Menendez, Fernando,Monier, Erwan,Selin, Noelle E.. The role of natural variability in projections of climate change impacts on US ozone pollution[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(6). |
APA | Garcia-Menendez, Fernando,Monier, Erwan,&Selin, Noelle E..(2017).The role of natural variability in projections of climate change impacts on US ozone pollution.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(6). |
MLA | Garcia-Menendez, Fernando,et al."The role of natural variability in projections of climate change impacts on US ozone pollution".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.6(2017). |
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