Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018GL078089 |
A 500-Year Tree Ring-Based Reconstruction of Extreme Cold-Season Precipitation and Number of Atmospheric River Landfalls Across the Southwestern United States | |
Steinschneider, Scott1; Ho, Michelle2; Williams, A. Park3; Cook, Edward R.3; Lall, Upmanu2 | |
2018-06-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:11页码:5672-5680 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | This study develops a reconstruction of the frequency of extreme cold-season precipitation and the occurrence of landfalling atmospheric river (AR) storm tracks across the southwestern Unites States using a network of tree ring chronologies and the Living Blended Drought Atlas (LBDA), a 500-year tree ring based reconstruction of the summer Palmer Drought Severity Index. The first two rotated empirical orthogonal functions of the LBDA across the Southwest are shown to relate well to previously identified patterns of regional AR activity. Accordingly, the rotated empirical orthogonal functions also record patterns of extreme precipitation associated with those ARs, albeit with some uncertainty introduced by nonextreme precipitation. A network of chronologies sensitive to cold-season precipitation is then used to reconstruct the occurrence of landfalling ARs and extreme precipitation along the southern Californian coast, demonstrating for the first time the feasibility of reconstructing AR landfalls and extreme events in the Southwest based on spatial patterns in a network of dendroclimatic proxies. Plain Language Summary Extreme precipitation and flood events are a significant hazard to society. Along the West Coast, many of these extreme events are linked to a particular type of storm called an atmospheric river. Intense atmospheric rivers that make landfall are rare, and this makes it difficult to assess the likelihood of these storms and whether this likelihood is changing over time. In this study, we present the first attempt to predict the occurrence of landfalling atmospheric rivers impacting the southwest coast of the Unites States over the past 500years, as well as extreme precipitation associated with these storms. To do this, we use a series of tree ring chronologies that record winter precipitation amounts in the widths of tree rings, which for some trees can extend backward in time for hundreds of years. Because intense atmospheric rivers bring substantial precipitation amounts that extend far into the interior of the western Unites States, we show that a network of tree ring chronologies across this region can predict when atmospheric rivers made landfall along the coast. This enables a better understanding of past variability in these storms, which can be used to contextualize observed trends or predicted changes in storm frequency under anthropogenic climate change. |
英文关键词 | atmospheric river tree ring chronologies reconstruction extreme precipitation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000436249900051 |
WOS关键词 | INLAND PENETRATION ; REANALYSIS PROJECT ; US ; ARIZONA |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25666 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Cornell Univ, Dept Biol & Environm Engn, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA; 2.Columbia Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Engn, New York, NY USA; 3.Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Tree Ring Lab, Palisades, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Steinschneider, Scott,Ho, Michelle,Williams, A. Park,et al. A 500-Year Tree Ring-Based Reconstruction of Extreme Cold-Season Precipitation and Number of Atmospheric River Landfalls Across the Southwestern United States[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(11):5672-5680. |
APA | Steinschneider, Scott,Ho, Michelle,Williams, A. Park,Cook, Edward R.,&Lall, Upmanu.(2018).A 500-Year Tree Ring-Based Reconstruction of Extreme Cold-Season Precipitation and Number of Atmospheric River Landfalls Across the Southwestern United States.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(11),5672-5680. |
MLA | Steinschneider, Scott,et al."A 500-Year Tree Ring-Based Reconstruction of Extreme Cold-Season Precipitation and Number of Atmospheric River Landfalls Across the Southwestern United States".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.11(2018):5672-5680. |
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