资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

When a large earthquake occurs near an active volcano, there is often concern that volcanic eruptions may be triggered by the earthquake. In this study, recently accumulated, reliable data were analyzed to quantitatively evaluate the probability of the occurrence of new eruptions of volcanoes located near the epicenters of large earthquakes. For volcanoes located within 200 km of large earthquakes of magnitude 7.5 or greater, the eruption occurrence probability increases by approximately 50% for 5 years after the earthquake origin time. However, no significant increase in the occurrence probability of new eruptions was observed at distant volcanoes or for smaller earthquakes. The present results strongly suggest that new eruptions are likely triggered by static stress changes and/or strong ground motions caused by nearby large earthquakes. This is not similar to the previously presented evidence that volcanic earthquakes at distant volcanoes are remotely triggered by surface waves generated by large earthquakes.