Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL075052 |
Seasonal Noise Versus Subseasonal Signal: Forecasts of California Precipitation During the Unusual Winters of 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 | |
Wang, Shuguang1; Anichowski, Alek1; Tippett, Michael K.1,3; Sobel, Adam H.1,2 | |
2017-09-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:18 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Saudi Arabia |
英文摘要 | Subseasonal forecasts of California precipitation during the unusual winters of 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are examined in this study. It is shown that two different ensemble forecast systems were able to predict monthly precipitation anomalies in California during these periods with some skill in forecasts initialized near or at the start of the month. The unexpected anomalies in February 2016, as well as in January and February 2017, were associated with shifts in the position of the jet stream over the northeast Pacific in a manner broadly consistent with associations found in larger ensembles of forecasts. These results support the broader notion that what is unpredictable atmospheric noise at the seasonal time scale can become predictable signal at the subseasonal time scale, despite that the lead times and verification averaging times associated with these forecasts are outside the predictability horizons of canonical midrange weather forecasting. |
英文关键词 | subseasonal forecast California precipitation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000413148100048 |
WOS关键词 | EL-NINO ; PREDICTION ; RIDGE |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25607 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY 10027 USA; 2.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY USA; 3.King Abdulaziz Univ, Dept Meteorol, Ctr Excellence Climate Change Res, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Shuguang,Anichowski, Alek,Tippett, Michael K.,et al. Seasonal Noise Versus Subseasonal Signal: Forecasts of California Precipitation During the Unusual Winters of 2015-2016 and 2016-2017[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(18). |
APA | Wang, Shuguang,Anichowski, Alek,Tippett, Michael K.,&Sobel, Adam H..(2017).Seasonal Noise Versus Subseasonal Signal: Forecasts of California Precipitation During the Unusual Winters of 2015-2016 and 2016-2017.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(18). |
MLA | Wang, Shuguang,et al."Seasonal Noise Versus Subseasonal Signal: Forecasts of California Precipitation During the Unusual Winters of 2015-2016 and 2016-2017".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.18(2017). |
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