Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL076043 |
Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Nonstationarity on Seasonal Streamflow Predictability in the US Southwest | |
Lehner, Flavio1; Wood, Andrew W.1; Llewellyn, Dagmar2; Blatchford, Douglas B.3; Goodbody, Angus G.4; Pappenberger, Florian5 | |
2017-12-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:24 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England |
英文摘要 | Seasonal streamflow predictions provide a critical management tool for water managers in the American Southwest. In recent decades, persistent prediction errors for spring and summer runoff volumes have been observed in a number of watersheds in the American Southwest. While mostly driven by decadal precipitation trends, these errors also relate to the influence of increasing temperature on streamflow in these basins. Here we show that incorporating seasonal temperature forecasts from operational global climate prediction models into streamflow forecasting models adds prediction skill for watersheds in the headwaters of the Colorado and Rio Grande River basins. Current dynamical seasonal temperature forecasts now show sufficient skill to reduce streamflow forecast errors in snowmelt-driven regions. Such predictions can increase the resilience of streamflow forecasting and water management systems in the face of continuing warming as well as decadal-scale temperature variability and thus help to mitigate the impacts of climate nonstationarity on streamflow predictability. |
英文关键词 | streamflow prediction and forecasting climate prediction temperature nonstationarity water resources snowmelt-driven hydrology |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000422954700023 |
WOS关键词 | SOIL-MOISTURE ; RIVER-BASIN ; HYDROLOGIC SENSITIVITIES ; UNITED-STATES ; PREDICTION ; FORECASTS ; PRECIPITATION ; RUNOFF ; SKILL ; STATIONARITY |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25497 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Res Applicat Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 2.US Bur Reclamat, Albuquerque Area Off, Albuquerque, NM USA; 3.US Bur Reclamat, Lower Colorado Reg Off, Boulder, CO USA; 4.Nat Resources Conservat Serv, Natl Water & Climate Ctr, Portland, OR USA; 5.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Forecast Dept, Reading, Berks, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lehner, Flavio,Wood, Andrew W.,Llewellyn, Dagmar,et al. Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Nonstationarity on Seasonal Streamflow Predictability in the US Southwest[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(24). |
APA | Lehner, Flavio,Wood, Andrew W.,Llewellyn, Dagmar,Blatchford, Douglas B.,Goodbody, Angus G.,&Pappenberger, Florian.(2017).Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Nonstationarity on Seasonal Streamflow Predictability in the US Southwest.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(24). |
MLA | Lehner, Flavio,et al."Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Nonstationarity on Seasonal Streamflow Predictability in the US Southwest".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.24(2017). |
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