Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018GL078689 |
Increase in Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in India Under 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C Warming Worlds | |
Ali, Haider; Mishra, Vimal | |
2018-07-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:14页码:6972-6982 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | India |
英文摘要 | An increase in short duration precipitation extremes poses challenges for storm water design in rapidly urbanizing India. The recent Paris Agreement aims to limit the global mean temperature (GMT) below 1.5 degrees C (and possibly below 2.0 degrees C) from the preindustrial level. However, the changes in subdaily precipitation extremes in India remain unrecognized under the 1.5- and 2.0-degrees C temperature targets. Here using observations and projections of the subdaily precipitation, we show that a majority (11 out of 15) of General Circulation Models underestimate 3-hourly precipitation extremes and overestimate the relationship between 3-hourly precipitation extremes and GMT (scaling) in India. A rise of 1.5 (2.0 degrees C) in GMT from the preindustrial level is projected to cause 20% (25%) increase in 3-hourly precipitation maxima at 100-year return period under the stationary condition, which can further rise by 10% under the nonstationary condition. Projected warming results in a much faster (almost twice) increase in 3-hourly precipitation maxima than 24-hourly 100-year precipitation maxima. Moreover, 3-hourly 100-year precipitation maxima are projected to increase significantly at 78 locations (out of 89) if GMT increases from 1.5 to 2.0 degrees C from the preindustrial level. Our findings have implications for urban storm water designs in India. |
英文关键词 | precipitation extreme events stationary nonstationary urban storm water designs |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000442582100025 |
WOS关键词 | FUTURE CHANGES ; CLIMATE MODELS ; TEMPERATURE ; FREQUENCY ; INTENSITY ; TRENDS ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25473 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Indian Inst Technol, Civil Engn, Gandhinagar, India |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ali, Haider,Mishra, Vimal. Increase in Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in India Under 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C Warming Worlds[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(14):6972-6982. |
APA | Ali, Haider,&Mishra, Vimal.(2018).Increase in Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in India Under 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C Warming Worlds.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(14),6972-6982. |
MLA | Ali, Haider,et al."Increase in Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in India Under 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C Warming Worlds".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.14(2018):6972-6982. |
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