Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018GL079415 |
Factors Influencing the Seasonal Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Severe Winter Storms | |
Hansen, F.1; Kruschke, T.1; Greatbatch, R. J.1,2; Weisheimer, A.3,4 | |
2019-01-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:1页码:365-373 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; England |
英文摘要 | We investigate the role of the tropics, the stratosphere, and atmosphere-ocean coupling for seasonal forecasts of strong, potentially damaging, Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter wind storm frequencies. This is done by means of relaxation experiments with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model, which allow us to prescribe perfect forecasts for specific parts of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. We find that perfect predictions of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere significantly enhance winter storm predictive skill between eastern Greenland and Northern Europe. Correct seasonal predictions of the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warmings play a decisive role. The importance of correctly predicting the tropics and of two-way atmosphere-ocean coupling, both for forecasting stratospheric sudden warming risk and, correspondingly, severe winter storm frequency, is noted. Plain Language Summary Wind storms rank among the most expensive types of natural hazards in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during winter and can yield severe damage and heavy loss in both Europe and North America. Therefore, predictions of these events well in advance are of large interest to a number of societal, economic, and scientific sectors. We investigate the factors that potentially influence winter storm frequency, namely, sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropics, and conditions in the NH stratosphere. We find that correct seasonal predictions of the NH stratosphere significantly improve winter storm seasonal predictions between eastern Greenland and Northern Europe. Correct seasonal predictions of the occurrence of extreme events in the stratosphere, so-called stratospheric sudden warmings, play a decisive role. We further note the importance of correctly predicting the tropics and of two-way atmosphere-ocean coupling, both for forecasting stratospheric sudden warming risk and, correspondingly, severe winter storm frequency. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000456938600040 |
WOS关键词 | QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION ; ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; EUROPEAN WINTER ; PREDICTION ; VARIABILITY ; CIRCULATION ; SKILL ; SYSTEMS ; LOSSES ; NAO |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25455 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.GEOMAR Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res Kiel, Kiel, Germany; 2.Univ Kiel, Fac Math & Nat Sci, Kiel, Germany; 3.Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Oxford, England; 4.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hansen, F.,Kruschke, T.,Greatbatch, R. J.,et al. Factors Influencing the Seasonal Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Severe Winter Storms[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(1):365-373. |
APA | Hansen, F.,Kruschke, T.,Greatbatch, R. J.,&Weisheimer, A..(2019).Factors Influencing the Seasonal Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Severe Winter Storms.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(1),365-373. |
MLA | Hansen, F.,et al."Factors Influencing the Seasonal Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Severe Winter Storms".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.1(2019):365-373. |
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