Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2018.11.005 |
How does urban population density decline over time? An exponential model for Chinese cities with international comparisons | |
Xu, Gang1,2; Jiao, Limin1,2; Yuan, Man3; Dong, Ting1,2; Zhang, Boen4; Du, Chunmeng1,2 | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING |
ISSN | 0169-2046 |
EISSN | 1872-6062 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 183页码:59-67 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | It is widely observed urban land expands faster than population grows, which results in declining urban population densities over time. However, it is not known how densities decline. By taking 35 major Chinese cities as examples, we propose an exponential model to quantify the temporal decline in urban population densities from 2001 to 2015. The average adjusted R-2 of the exponential model for 35 cities is 0.68, indicating a moderate but powerful correlation with temporal variations in densities. The exponential model implies that the temporal decline in densities in cities is occurring at a constant but differentiated rate. Apart from Beijing and Shanghai, the annual decline rates vary from 1% to 9%, with an average of 4.65%, which means urban population densities declined by 4.65% per annum from 2001 to 2015. The bivariate correlation analysis and multiple regression model reveal that the initial urban population density and the growth rates of urban land, population, and GDP in a city are significantly correlated with the decline rates and that these four factors can explain 72.3% of the variance in the decline rates among cities. We further verified the transferability and applicability of the exponential model by applying it to 20 U.S. cities. Using a global dataset, we found the temporal decline rate in densities in Chinese cities was greater than those in India and other countries or regions, which highlights the necessity of efficient urban development strategies to slow down the temporal decline in urban population densities in China. |
英文关键词 | Urbanization Urban population density Urban expansion Population growth China |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000456906400006 |
WOS关键词 | LAND-USE ; ENERGY USE ; EXPANSION ; SPRAWL ; SCENARIOS ; IMPACTS ; AREA |
WOS类目 | Ecology ; Environmental Studies ; Geography ; Geography, Physical ; Regional & Urban Planning ; Urban Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography ; Physical Geography ; Public Administration ; Urban Studies |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25304 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Wuhan Univ, Sch Resource & Environm Sci, 129 Luoyu Rd, Wuhan 430079, Hubei, Peoples R China; 2.Wuhan Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Geog Informat Syst, 129 Luoyu Rd, Wuhan 430079, Hubei, Peoples R China; 3.Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Architecture & Urban Planning, 1037 Luoyu Rd, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China; 4.Hong Kong Polytech Univ, Dept Land Surveying & Geoinformat, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xu, Gang,Jiao, Limin,Yuan, Man,et al. How does urban population density decline over time? An exponential model for Chinese cities with international comparisons[J]. LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING,2019,183:59-67. |
APA | Xu, Gang,Jiao, Limin,Yuan, Man,Dong, Ting,Zhang, Boen,&Du, Chunmeng.(2019).How does urban population density decline over time? An exponential model for Chinese cities with international comparisons.LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING,183,59-67. |
MLA | Xu, Gang,et al."How does urban population density decline over time? An exponential model for Chinese cities with international comparisons".LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING 183(2019):59-67. |
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