Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2017.08.007 |
Assessing uncertainty and performance of ensemble conservation planning strategies | |
Lin, Yu-Pin1; Lin, Wei-Chih1; Anthony, Johnathen1; Ding, Tzung-Su2; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste3; Henle, Klaus3; Schmeller, Dirk S.3,4,5 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING |
ISSN | 0169-2046 |
EISSN | 1872-6062 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 169页码:57-69 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Taiwan; Germany; France |
英文摘要 | Systematic conservation initiatives attempt to cater to the needs of many species via the integration of multiple species distribution models (SDMs), or via the integration of Systematic Conservation Planning (SCP) software, such as Zonation. Unfortunately, due to limited data and knowledge, it is often difficult to select the most suitable model for specific species, let alone an appropriate ensemble modeling method for multiple species. In general, model selection criteria are based on either model performance or consensus. The former integrates the highest-performing SDM for all focal species, whereas the latter integrates multiple SDM outputs based on consensus. While higher-performing ensemble models presumably identify high-quality habitats better, many have argued that high consensus ensemble models have less uncertainty originating from sporadic model variability. This study develops and validates seven ensemble-modeling strategies for integrating outputs of the systematic conservation tool Zonation. First, we considered the distributions of 11 bird species via 100 runs of five SDMs across Taiwan. Second, we evaluated the local and global uncertainty of all five models. Third, we used Zonation to obtain conservation priorities. We then used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to quantify different sources of uncertainty. Finally, we used independent third-party habitat data to validate each strategy. On average, the 'best model' strategy (based on the highest ADC value) performed best. Based on our modeling exercise we present a comprehensive framework for conservation prioritization, validation and the quantification of uncertainty intrinsic to SDMs according to different conservation scenarios and goals. |
英文关键词 | Ensemble modelling Uncertainty analysis Robustness Species distribution models Systematic conservation planning |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000414882300006 |
WOS关键词 | SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RESERVE SELECTION ; ENVELOPE MODELS ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; PREDICTION ; RANGE ; ACCURACY ; NETWORKS ; SPACE |
WOS类目 | Ecology ; Environmental Studies ; Geography ; Geography, Physical ; Regional & Urban Planning ; Urban Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography ; Physical Geography ; Public Administration ; Urban Studies |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25269 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Taiwan Univ, Dept Bioenvironm Syst Engn, 1,Sec 4,Roosevelt Rd, Taipei 10617, Taiwan; 2.Natl Taiwan Univ, Sch Forestry & Resource Conservat, 1,Sec 4,Roosevelt Rd, Taipei 10617, Taiwan; 3.UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Conservat Biol, Pennoserstr 15, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany; 4.Univ Toulouse, UPS, INPT, EcoLab Lab Ecol Fonct & Environm, 118 Route Narbonne, F-31062 Toulouse, France; 5.CNRS, EcoLab, F-31062 Toulouse, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lin, Yu-Pin,Lin, Wei-Chih,Anthony, Johnathen,et al. Assessing uncertainty and performance of ensemble conservation planning strategies[J]. LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING,2018,169:57-69. |
APA | Lin, Yu-Pin.,Lin, Wei-Chih.,Anthony, Johnathen.,Ding, Tzung-Su.,Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste.,...&Schmeller, Dirk S..(2018).Assessing uncertainty and performance of ensemble conservation planning strategies.LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING,169,57-69. |
MLA | Lin, Yu-Pin,et al."Assessing uncertainty and performance of ensemble conservation planning strategies".LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING 169(2018):57-69. |
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