GSTDTAP  > 资源环境科学
DOI10.1016/j.landurbplan.2017.09.019
A future land use simulation model (FLUS) for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects
Liu, Xiaoping1; Liang, Xun1; Li, Xia1,2; Xu, Xiaocong1; Ou, Jinpei1; Chen, Yimin1,2; Li, Shaoying3; Wang, Shaojian1; Pei, Fengsong4
2017-12-01
发表期刊LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING
ISSN0169-2046
EISSN1872-6062
出版年2017
卷号168
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
英文摘要

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) simulation models are effective and reproducible tools for analyzing both the causes and consequences of future landscape dynamics under various scenarios. Current simulation models primarily focus on the evolution of specific land use types under the influence of human activities, but they rarely consider background climatic effects. However, these background climate changes significantly affect the landscape dynamics and should be incorporated into long-term LUCC simulations under various human climate-included scenarios. In this paper, we propose a future land use simulation (FLUS) model that explicitly simulates the long-term spatial trajectories of multiple LUCCs. The top-down system dynamics and bottom-up cellular automata were interactively coupled during the projection period, which improved the model's ability to accurately simulate future land use patterns. A self-adaptive inertia and competition mechanism was developed within the CA model to process the complex competitions and interactions between the different land use types. The proposed model was applied to an LUCC simulation in China from 2000 to 2010. The results show promising grid-to-grid agreement compared to actual land use, and the simulation accuracy is higher than other well accepted models, such as CLUE-S and CA models. The model was further applied to the simulation of four scenarios from 2010 to 2050 that depict different development strategies by considering various socio-economic and natural climatic factors. The simulation results and findings demonstrate that the proposed model is effective for future LUCC simulation under variously designed scenarios. FLUS is available for free download at http://www.geosimulation.cn/FLUS.html.


英文关键词Land use and land cover change Land use simulation System dynamics Cellular automata FLUS Human and natural effects
领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000414885700010
WOS关键词CONSTRAINED CELLULAR-AUTOMATA ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; URBAN-GROWTH ; COVER CHANGE ; USE DYNAMICS ; LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS ; NEURAL-NETWORK ; SYSTEM ; IMPACT ; URBANIZATION
WOS类目Ecology ; Environmental Studies ; Geography ; Geography, Physical ; Regional & Urban Planning ; Urban Studies
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography ; Physical Geography ; Public Administration ; Urban Studies
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25041
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Geog & Planning, Guangdong Key Lab Urbanizat & Geosimulat, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China;
2.East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Key Lab Geog Informat Sci, Minist Educ, 500 Dongchuan Rd, Shanghai 200241, Peoples R China;
3.Guangzhou Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China;
4.Jiangsu Normal Univ, Sch Geog Geomat & Planning, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Liu, Xiaoping,Liang, Xun,Li, Xia,et al. A future land use simulation model (FLUS) for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects[J]. LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING,2017,168.
APA Liu, Xiaoping.,Liang, Xun.,Li, Xia.,Xu, Xiaocong.,Ou, Jinpei.,...&Pei, Fengsong.(2017).A future land use simulation model (FLUS) for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects.LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING,168.
MLA Liu, Xiaoping,et al."A future land use simulation model (FLUS) for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects".LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING 168(2017).
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