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DOI | [db:DOI] |
China’s External Sector: Imagining the Post-Covid-19 Reality | |
Kevin Nealer | |
2020-04-15 | |
出版年 | 2020 |
国家 | 美国 |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 资源环境 |
英文摘要 | China’s External Sector: Imagining the Post-Covid-19 RealityApril 15, 2020 Foreign views of Chinese economic priorities are often trapped in the image of an export-led model; a statist system that imports inflation and exports deflation, hostage to foreign market access. But China’s exports in 2018 accounted for about 20 percent of GDP—a 16-percentage point drop from the 2006 peak, according to the World Bank. As a recent column notes, China’s export orientation is not far above the United States (12 percent) and well below Britain and France (30 percent), let alone South Korea (43 percent) and Germany (47 percent). Of course, China’s sheer size and its contribution to global growth mean it continues to be an outsize component of global prosperity. According to the International Monetary Fund, China accounts for 30 percent of world output growth—more than that of the United States and India combined. That perpetuates the idea that China is powerfully vulnerable to decoupling. How will the combination of a U.S. tech policy “divorce” (well underway before the virus) and the post-Covid reality of deconstructed supply chains shape Chinese reliance on the external sector?U.S. efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese high technology and limit China’s access to key inputs (with emphasis on semiconductors, telecommunications, artificial intelligence [AI], and aviation equipment) are almost certainly now regarded as inevitable by Beijing. The Covid-19 crisis has added medical products to that list. Even before Covid-19, for state planning purposes, decoupling was a fact of economic life for Chinese policymakers—one requiring coping strategies that needed to be fully operational over the five years of Xi’s second term. They are focused not on stopping it, but on:
What will these policies look like and how will they shape global supply chains?They may take several forms:
What about the role of FDI inside China?As noted above, that space was contracting before Covid-19 in favor of stronger preferences for domestic champions, despite the show of some new protections for foreign investors. It is unclear how much further China will continue to open its financial and banking services sectors, which have been prominent features of recent reforms, both in terms of improved management, close collaboration with international markets and more efficient allocation of resources. As the Committee on the Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) and the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA) procedures expand and continue to target Chinese firms, reciprocal policies and unpublished guidance will continue to squeeze U.S. companies, reducing options and margins. U.S. and other foreign firms will be watching the signaling from the end-year plenum meetings to understand what is possible in this shrinking space. The past five years have been challenging; the next may be more so. Kevin G. Nealer is a senior adviser (non-resident) with the Simon Chair in Political Economy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. He is currently a principal of the Scowcroft Group. Bob Goldberg served as Deputy Chief of Mission at the U.S. Embassy Beijing and is now a principal at the Scowcroft Group. Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2020 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. |
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来源平台 | Center for Strategic & International Studies |
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文献类型 | 科技报告 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/250081 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kevin Nealer. China’s External Sector: Imagining the Post-Covid-19 Reality,2020. |
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