Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41467-019-14049-6 |
Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes | |
Frederikse, Thomas1,2; Buchanan, Maya K.3; Lambert, Erwin2; Kopp, Robert E.4,5; Oppenheimer, Michael6,7; Rasmussen, D. J.7; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.2,8 | |
2020-01-20 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE COMMUNICATIONS |
ISSN | 2041-1723 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 11期号:1 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | Uncertainties in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) melt propagate into uncertainties in projected mean sea-level (MSL) changes and extreme sea-level (ESL) events. Here we quantify the impact of RCP scenarios and AIS contributions on 21st-century ESL changes at tide-gauge sites across the globe using extreme-value statistics. We find that even under RCP2.6, almost half of the sites could be exposed annually to a present-day 100-year ESL event by 2050. Most tropical sites face large increases in ESL events earlier and for scenarios with smaller MSL changes than extratropical sites. Strong emission reductions lower the probability of large ESL changes but due to AIS uncertainties, cannot fully eliminate the probability that large increases in frequencies of ESL events will occur. Under RCP8.5 and rapid AIS mass loss, many tropical sites, including low-lying islands face a MSL rise by 2100 that exceeds the present-day 100-year event level. |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000512537400011 |
WOS关键词 | RISE ; AMBIGUITY ; THWAITES |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/249908 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, 4800 Oak Grove Dr, Pasadena, CA 91101 USA; 2.Univ Utrecht, Inst Marine & Atmospher Res Utrecht IMAU, POB 80011, NL-3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands; 3.Climate Cent, One Palmer Sq,Suite 402, Princeton, NJ 08542 USA; 4.Rutgers State Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, 71 Dudley Rd, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA; 5.Rutgers State Univ, Inst Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, 71 Dudley Rd, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA; 6.Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Robertson Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 7.Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch Publ & Int Affairs, Robertson Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 8.Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, POB 80115, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Frederikse, Thomas,Buchanan, Maya K.,Lambert, Erwin,et al. Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2020,11(1). |
APA | Frederikse, Thomas.,Buchanan, Maya K..,Lambert, Erwin.,Kopp, Robert E..,Oppenheimer, Michael.,...&van de Wal, Roderik S. W..(2020).Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,11(1). |
MLA | Frederikse, Thomas,et al."Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 11.1(2020). |
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