Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1914898117 |
Hazard from Himalayan glacier lake outburst floods | |
Veh, Georg1; Korup, Oliver1,2; Walz, Ariane1 | |
2020-01-14 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA |
ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 117期号:2页码:907-912 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | Sustained glacier melt in the Himalayas has gradually spawned more than 5,000 glacier lakes that are dammed by potentially unstable moraines. When such dams break, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause catastrophic societal and geomorphic impacts. We present a robust probabilistic estimate of average GLOFs return periods in the Himalayan region, drawing on 5.4 billion simulations. We find that the 100-y outburst flood has an average volume of 33.5(+3.7)/(-3.7) x 10(6) m(3) (posterior mean and 95% highest density interval [HDI]) with a peak discharge of 15,600(+2.000)/(-1,800) m(3).S-1. Our estimated GLOF hazard is tied to the rate of historic lake outbursts and the number of present lakes, which both are highest in the Eastern Himalayas. There, the estimated 100-y GLOF discharge (similar to 14,500 m(3).s(-1)) is more than 3 times that of the adjacent Nyainqentanglha Mountains, and at least an order of magnitude higher than in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Western Himalayas. The GLOF hazard may increase in these regions that currently have large glaciers, but few lakes, if future projected ice loss generates more unstable moraine-dammed lakes than we recognize today. Flood peaks from GLOFs mostly attenuate within Himalayan headwaters, but can rival monsoon-fed discharges in major rivers hundreds to thousands of kilometers downstream. Projections of future hazard from meteorological floods need to account for the extreme runoffs during lake outbursts, given the increasing trends in population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in Himalayan headwaters. |
英文关键词 | atmospheric warming meltwater lakes GLOF extreme-value statistics Bayesian modeling |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000508976200023 |
WOS关键词 | MOUNT EVEREST REGION ; MORAINE-DAMMED LAKES ; PEAK DISCHARGE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; IMPACT ; VOLUME ; RISK |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/249695 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Potsdam, Inst Environm Sci & Geog, D-14476 Potsdam, Germany; 2.Univ Potsdam, Inst Geosci, D-14476 Potsdam, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Veh, Georg,Korup, Oliver,Walz, Ariane. Hazard from Himalayan glacier lake outburst floods[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2020,117(2):907-912. |
APA | Veh, Georg,Korup, Oliver,&Walz, Ariane.(2020).Hazard from Himalayan glacier lake outburst floods.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,117(2),907-912. |
MLA | Veh, Georg,et al."Hazard from Himalayan glacier lake outburst floods".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 117.2(2020):907-912. |
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