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DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1914829117 |
Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict | |
Roche, Kevin R.1; Muller-Itten, Michele2; Dralle, David N.3; Bolster, Diogo1; Muller, Marc F.1 | |
2020-01-28 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA |
ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 117期号:4页码:1935-1940 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | A growing empirical literature associates climate anomalies with increased risk of violent conflict. This association has been portrayed as a bellwether of future societal instability as the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are predicted to increase. This paper investigates the theoretical foundation of this claim. A seminal microeconomic model of opportunity costs-a mechanism often thought to drive climate-conflict relationships- is extended by considering realistic changes in the distribution of climate-dependent agricultural income. Results advise caution in using empirical associations between short-run climate anomalies and conflicts to predict the effect of sustained shifts in climate regimes: Although war occurs in bad years, conflict may decrease if agents expect more frequent bad years. Theory suggests a nonmonotonic relation between climate variability and conflict that emerges as agents adapt and adjust their behavior to the new income distribution. We identify 3 measurable statistics of the income distribution that are each unambiguously associated with conflict likelihood. Jointly, these statistics offer a unique signature to distinguish opportunity costs from competing mechanisms that may relate climate anomalies to conflict. |
英文关键词 | violence agriculture rainfall income shock microeconomic theory |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000509791700022 |
WOS关键词 | ECONOMIC SHOCKS ; CIVIL CONFLICT |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/249682 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Notre Dame, Dept Civil & Environm Engn & Earth Sci, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA; 2.Univ Notre Dame, Dept Econ, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA; 3.Calif State Univ, Dept Geol, Sacramento, CA 95819 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Roche, Kevin R.,Muller-Itten, Michele,Dralle, David N.,et al. Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2020,117(4):1935-1940. |
APA | Roche, Kevin R.,Muller-Itten, Michele,Dralle, David N.,Bolster, Diogo,&Muller, Marc F..(2020).Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,117(4),1935-1940. |
MLA | Roche, Kevin R.,et al."Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 117.4(2020):1935-1940. |
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