Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41467-020-15752-5 |
Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts | |
Arns, Arne1; Wahl, Thomas2; Wolff, Claudia3; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.3; Haigh, Ivan D.4; Woodworth, Philip5; Niehueser, Sebastian6; Jensen, Juergen6 | |
2020-04-21 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE COMMUNICATIONS |
ISSN | 2041-1723 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 11期号:1 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; USA; England |
英文摘要 | We introduce a novel approach to statistically assess the non-linear interaction of tide and non-tidal residual in order to quantify its contribution to extreme sea levels and hence its role in modulating coastal protection levels, globally. We demonstrate that extreme sea levels are up to 30% (or 70cm) higher if non-linear interactions are not accounted for (e.g., by independently adding astronomical and non-astronomical components, as is often done in impact case studies). These overestimates are similar to recent sea-level rise projections to 2100 at some locations. Furthermore, we further find evidence for changes in this non-linear interaction over time, which has the potential for counteracting the increasing flood risk associated with sea-level rise and tidal and/or meteorological changes alone. Finally, we show how accounting for non-linearity in coastal impact assessment modulates coastal exposure, reducing recent estimates of global coastal flood costs by similar to 16%, and population affected by similar to 8%. |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000529508000003 |
WOS关键词 | TIDE-SURGE INTERACTION ; WATER LEVELS ; NORTH-SEA ; WAVE |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/249530 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Rostock, Fac Agr & Environm Sci, Justus von Liebig Weg 6, D-18059 Rostock, Germany; 2.Univ Cent Florida, Dept Civil Environm & Construct Engn, Natl Ctr Integrated Coastal Res, 12800 Pegasus Dr,Suite 211, Orlando, FL 32816 USA; 3.Christian Albrechts Univ Kiel, Dept Geog, Coastal Risks & Sea Level Rise Res Grp, D-24118 Kiel, Germany; 4.Univ Southampton, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci, Natl Oceanog Ctr Southampton, Waterfront Campus, Southampton SO14 3ZH, Hants, England; 5.Natl Oceanog Ctr, Joseph Proudman Bldg,6 Brownlow St, Liverpool L3 5DA, Merseyside, England; 6.Univ Siegen, Res Inst Water & Environm, Paul Bonatz Str 9-11, D-57076 Siegen, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Arns, Arne,Wahl, Thomas,Wolff, Claudia,et al. Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2020,11(1). |
APA | Arns, Arne.,Wahl, Thomas.,Wolff, Claudia.,Vafeidis, Athanasios T..,Haigh, Ivan D..,...&Jensen, Juergen.(2020).Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,11(1). |
MLA | Arns, Arne,et al."Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 11.1(2020). |
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