Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0 |
Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction | |
Pendergrass, Angeline G.1; Meehl, Gerald A.1; Pulwarty, Roger2; Hobbins, Mike2,3; Hoell, Andrew2; AghaKouchak, Amir4,5; Bonfils, Celine J. W.6; Gallant, Ailie J. E.7,8; Hoerling, Martin2; Hoffmann, David7,8; Kaatz, Laurna9; Lehner, Flavio1; Llewellyn, Dagmar10; Mote, Philip11,12; Neale, Richard B.1; Overpeck, Jonathan T.13; Sheffield, Amanda14; Stahl, Kerstin15; Svoboda, Mark16; Wheeler, Matthew C.17; Wood, Andrew W.1; Woodhouse, Connie A.18 | |
2020-03-02 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
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ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 10期号:3页码:191-199 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Australia; Germany |
英文摘要 | Flash droughts, which develop over the course of weeks, are difficult to forecast given the current state of subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. This Perspective offers operational and research definitions, places them in the broader context of climate and suggests avenues for future research. Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Here we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000519472800015 |
WOS关键词 | SOUTHERN GREAT-PLAINS ; PRECIPITATION DEFICIT ; RUNOFF EFFICIENCY ; CHANGING CLIMATE ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; RIO-GRANDE ; RISK ; PREDICTABILITY ; STATES ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/249435 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 2.NOAA, Earth Syst Res Lab, Phys Sci Div, Boulder, CO USA; 3.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO USA; 4.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Irvine, CA USA; 5.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA USA; 6.Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Program Climate Model Diag & Intercomparison, Livermore, CA 94550 USA; 7.Monash Univ, Sch Earth Atmosphere & Environm, Clayton, Vic, Australia; 8.Monash Univ, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Clayton, Vic, Australia; 9.Denver Water, Denver, CO USA; 10.US Dept Interior, Bur Reclamat, Albuquerque, NM USA; 11.Oregon State Univ, Oregon Climate Change Res Inst, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA; 12.Oregon State Univ, Grad Sch, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA; 13.Univ Michigan, Sch Environm & Sustainabil, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA; 14.NOAA, NIDIS, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA USA; 15.Univ Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany; 16.Univ Nebraska, Natl Drought Mitigat Ctr, Lincoln, NE USA; 17.Australian Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 18.Univ Arizona, Sch Geog & Dev, Tucson, AZ USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pendergrass, Angeline G.,Meehl, Gerald A.,Pulwarty, Roger,et al. Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2020,10(3):191-199. |
APA | Pendergrass, Angeline G..,Meehl, Gerald A..,Pulwarty, Roger.,Hobbins, Mike.,Hoell, Andrew.,...&Woodhouse, Connie A..(2020).Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,10(3),191-199. |
MLA | Pendergrass, Angeline G.,et al."Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 10.3(2020):191-199. |
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