Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2 |
Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects | |
Deser, C.1,2; Lehner, F.1,2; Rodgers, K. B.2,3,4; Ault, T.2,5; Delworth, T. L.2,6; DiNezio, P. N.2,7; Fiore, A.2,8; Frankignoul, C.2,9; Fyfe, J. C.2,10; Horton, D. E.2,11; Kay, J. E.2,12,13; Knutti, R.2,14; Lovenduski, N. S.2,12,15; Marotzke, J.2,16; McKinnon, K. A.2,17,18; Minobe, S.2,19; Randerson, J.2,20; Screen, J. A.2,21; Simpson, I. R.1,2; Ting, M.2,8 | |
2020-03-30 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 10期号:4页码:277-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; South Korea; France; Canada; Switzerland; Germany; Japan; England |
英文摘要 | Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections, especially at regional and decadal scales. A new collection of initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) generated with seven Earth system models under historical and future radiative forcing scenarios provides new insights into uncertainties due to internal variability versus model differences. These data enhance the assessment of climate change risks, including extreme events, and offer a powerful testbed for new methodologies aimed at separating forced signals from internal variability in the observational record. Opportunities and challenges confronting the design and dissemination of future LEs, including increased spatial resolution and model complexity alongside emerging Earth system applications, are discussed. Climate change detection is confounded by internal variability, but recent initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) have begun addressing this issue. This Perspective discusses the value of multi-model LEs, the challenges of providing them and their role in future climate change research. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000522381600002 |
WOS关键词 | EASTERN UNITED-STATES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; INTERNAL VARIABILITY ; REGIONAL CLIMATE ; NORTH-AMERICA ; NATURAL VARIABILITY ; HIGH-RESOLUTION ; AIR-POLLUTION ; SURFACE OZONE ; TRENDS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/249399 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 2.US CLIVAR Working Grp Large Ensembles, Washington, DC 20005 USA; 3.Inst Basic Sci, Ctr Climate Phys, Busan, South Korea; 4.Pusan Natl Univ, Pusan, South Korea; 5.Cornell Univ, Ithaca, NY USA; 6.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA; 7.Univ Texas Austin, Inst Geophys, Austin, TX USA; 8.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY USA; 9.Sorbonne Univ, Paris, France; 10.Univ Victoria, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Environm & Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; 11.Northwestern Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Evanston, IL 60201 USA; 12.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 13.Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 14.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland; 15.Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 16.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany; 17.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Los Angeles, CA USA; 18.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Stat, Los Angeles, CA USA; 19.Hokkaido Univ, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan; 20.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA USA; 21.Univ Exeter, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Deser, C.,Lehner, F.,Rodgers, K. B.,et al. Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2020,10(4):277-+. |
APA | Deser, C..,Lehner, F..,Rodgers, K. B..,Ault, T..,Delworth, T. L..,...&Ting, M..(2020).Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,10(4),277-+. |
MLA | Deser, C.,et al."Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 10.4(2020):277-+. |
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