Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-020-0754-8 |
Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack | |
Livneh, Ben1,2; Badger, Andrew M.3,4 | |
2020-04-20 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 10期号:5页码:452-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Climate warming causes less mountain precipitation to fall as snow. Hydrologic simulations predict that in a high-end emissions scenario, this decreases the predictability of seasonal water resources across the western United States, with low-elevation coastal areas impacted most strongly. Mountain snowpack serves as an immense natural water reservoir, and knowledge of snow conditions helps predict seasonal water availability and offers critical early warning of hydrologic drought. This paradigm faces an impending challenge given consensus that a smaller fraction of future precipitation will fall as snow. Here, we apply downscaled hydrologic simulations from 28 climate model projections to show that by mid-century (2036-2065), 69% of historically snowmelt-dominated areas of the western United States see a decline in the ability of snow to predict seasonal drought, increasing to 83% by late century (2070-2099). Reduced predictability arises when peak snowpack approaches zero or because of decreased warm-season runoff efficiency. Changes in drought prediction skill show significant (P < 0.01) elevation dependence, with lower-elevation coastal areas most impacted by warming. Ancillary predictive information can only partially mitigate snow-based predictability losses to 65% of areas, underscoring the importance of declining future snowpack. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000527688100005 |
WOS关键词 | STREAMFLOW FORECASTS ; SEASONAL STREAMFLOW ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK ; UNITED-STATES ; CLIMATE ; WATER ; PRECIPITATION ; MODEL ; VARIABILITY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/249346 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Colorado, Dept Civil Environm & Architectural Engn, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 2.Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 3.Univ Space Res Assoc, Columbia, MD USA; 4.NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Livneh, Ben,Badger, Andrew M.. Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2020,10(5):452-+. |
APA | Livneh, Ben,&Badger, Andrew M..(2020).Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,10(5),452-+. |
MLA | Livneh, Ben,et al."Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 10.5(2020):452-+. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论