Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019WR025122 |
Modeling Hydrological Inflow Persistence Using Paleoclimate Reconstructions on the Quebec-Labrador (Canada) Peninsula | |
Nasri, B. R.1; Boucher, E.2,3; Perreault, L.4; Remillard, B. N.5; Huard, D.6; Nicault, A.7 | |
2020-02-15 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 56期号:5 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada; France |
英文摘要 | Annual inflow forecasts are often based on historical time series, where every year is considered equally likely to reoccur. This process ignores the persistence of dry/wet conditions often observed in time series, behavior that is of utmost importance for hydroelectric energy producers. However, the modeling of persistence properties is challenging when only short time series are available for calibration. Here, we use Gaussian hidden Markov models to describe the regime-switching behavior, where the next year's inflow depends on the current estimated regime. For four large hydropower reservoirs on the Quebec-Labrador Peninsula, a Gaussian hidden Markov model is calibrated on both a 30-year observational record and a 190-year paleoclimatic inflow reconstruction. Each reconstruction is a composite of three reconstruction methods drawing on five different tree-ring proxies (ring widths, minimal wood density, maximal wood density, delta C-13, and delta O-18). The calibration on the reconstructed series finds two hydrological regimes, while the calibration on the observed data has only one regime for three out of four watersheds. Yearly hindcasts with the two calibrated Gaussian hidden Markov models suggest that for all four watersheds, extending the time series with reconstructions improves the model's predictive accuracy. This approach does not explicitly account for the differing accuracy of the observational and reconstructed time series or compare hidden Markov models to other models of persistence. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000537736400007 |
WOS关键词 | HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL ; LONG-TERM PERSISTENCE ; TIME-SERIES ; TREE-RINGS ; NORTHERN QUEBEC ; TEMPERATURE-VARIATIONS ; STREAMFLOW ; DROUGHT ; RIVER ; VARIABILITY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/249268 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Montral, Dept Social & Prevent Med, Montreal, PQ, Canada; 2.Univ Quebec Montreal, Dept Geog, GEOTOP, Montreal, PQ, Canada; 3.Univ Quebec Montreal, Ctr Etud Nord, Montreal, PQ, Canada; 4.Hydroquebec Res Inst, Montreal, PQ, Canada; 5.HEC Montreal, Dept Decis Sci, Montreal, PQ, Canada; 6.Ouranos, Montreal, PQ, Canada; 7.Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, Europale Mediterraneen Arbois, ECCOREV,FR 3098, Marseille, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nasri, B. R.,Boucher, E.,Perreault, L.,et al. Modeling Hydrological Inflow Persistence Using Paleoclimate Reconstructions on the Quebec-Labrador (Canada) Peninsula[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2020,56(5). |
APA | Nasri, B. R.,Boucher, E.,Perreault, L.,Remillard, B. N.,Huard, D.,&Nicault, A..(2020).Modeling Hydrological Inflow Persistence Using Paleoclimate Reconstructions on the Quebec-Labrador (Canada) Peninsula.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,56(5). |
MLA | Nasri, B. R.,et al."Modeling Hydrological Inflow Persistence Using Paleoclimate Reconstructions on the Quebec-Labrador (Canada) Peninsula".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 56.5(2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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