资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

This study is based on global and regional model calculations. The model runs are made with meteorology and emission data representative for year 2017, after the tightening of the SECA (Sulphur Emission Control Area) regulations in 2015, but before the global sulfur cap entering into force in 2020. We have also made model runs reducing sulfur emissions by 80 % corresponding to the 2020 requirements. This study is based on model sensitivity studies perturbing emissions from different sea areas: the Northern European SECA in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, the Atlantic Ocean close to Europe, shipping in the rest of the world and finally all global ship emissions together. Sensitivity studies have also been made setting lower bounds on the effects of ship plumes on ozone formation.

The results from the global and regional calculations are similar. Both global and regional scale calculations show that for PM_2.5 and depositions of oxidised nitrogen and sulfur, the effects of ship emissions are much larger when emissions occur close to the shore than at open seas. In many coastal countries calculations show that shipping is responsible for 10 % or more of the controllable PM_2.5 concentrations and depositions of oxidised nitrogen and sulphur. For ozone the lifetime in the atmosphere is much longer than for PM_2.5, and the potential for ozone formation is much larger in otherwise pristine environments. We find considerable contributions from open sea shipping. As a result the largest contributions to ozone in several regions and countries are from rest of the world shipping.