Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106664 |
Use and misuse of the net present value in environmental studies | |
Knoke, Thomas1; Gosling, Elizabeth1; Paul, Carola2 | |
2020-05-06 | |
发表期刊 | ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS |
ISSN | 0921-8009 |
EISSN | 1873-6106 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 174 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | Environmental studies regularly use the net present value (NPV) to value benefits and costs of projects. However, the NPV disregards whether the stream of net benefits is steady or volatile and ignores the distribution of net benefits among different groups of people. Here we test alternatives to NPV, building on two example cases: 1) We use discounted utility (DU) to evaluate land-use projects and calculate opportunity costs for avoided deforestation. 2) We simulate decision-making on tropical deforestation, whereby we use multiple decision criteria to consider the distribution of net benefits between two groups: farmers and conservationists. Results show considerable differences in the ranking of projects between DU and NPV, when projects are not marginal. Compared to DU, NPV regularly overestimates the value of forest plantations. Moreover, NPV tends to overstate the opportunity costs of avoiding deforestation in terms of saved carbon emissions. Not accounting for the distribution of net benefits when optimizing land-use allocation leads to sub-optimal simulated deforestation scenarios. We therefore suggest that future studies should either also use DU to value economic consequences of projects or that they use the NPV as only one among several socio-economic and ecological decision criteria. |
英文关键词 | Decision-making Discounted utility Deforestation Costs of carbon Land use Multi-criteria optimization |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000535905400008 |
WOS关键词 | MULTIPLE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; BENEFIT-COST-ANALYSIS ; LAND-USE CHANGE ; SUSTAIN BIODIVERSITY ; WELFARE PROPOSITIONS ; SOUTHERN ECUADOR ; DISTANT FUTURE ; CONSERVATION ; FOREST ; MANAGEMENT |
WOS类目 | Ecology ; Economics ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Business & Economics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/248810 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Tech Univ Munich, TUM Sch Life Sci Weihenstephan, Inst Forest Management, D-85354 Freising Weihenstephan, Germany; 2.Georg August Univ Goettingen, Dept Forest Econ & Sustainable Land Use Planning, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Knoke, Thomas,Gosling, Elizabeth,Paul, Carola. Use and misuse of the net present value in environmental studies[J]. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,2020,174. |
APA | Knoke, Thomas,Gosling, Elizabeth,&Paul, Carola.(2020).Use and misuse of the net present value in environmental studies.ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,174. |
MLA | Knoke, Thomas,et al."Use and misuse of the net present value in environmental studies".ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 174(2020). |
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