Keeling and Scripps Oceanography colleague Ray Weiss are part of the L.A. Megacities project, a multi-institutional attempt to quantify the greenhouse gas emissions of metropolitan areas and their changes over time. Megacities researchers monitor Los Angeles and many other cities in the U.S. and around the globe. Weiss said that Los Angeles is indeed registering signs of a change in lifestyle at first glance, though the nuances of the coronavirus effect will take longer to tease out of the data. Nitrogen dioxide, a pollutant that can be measured from satellites and is emitted by vehicles, mainly those that are diesel powered, has been falling since March, the time of year when levels typically begin to increase. Heavy March rains also helped clean the air so determining the relative influences will take time.
Jeremy Jackson, an emeritus professor of oceanography at Scripps, spent much of his career documenting how natural systems decline and how perceptions of what is normal in nature deteriorate over generations. The concept is known as “shifting baselines.” For instance, one might see a dozen sharks in a square mile of ocean and conclude the ocean is healthy though there might have been 500 sharks in that same area several hundred years ago before human intrusion.
Jackson sees the global economy not being where it was pre-coronavirus for up to five years – even if a vaccine were to be available next week. There will be a lingering fear of large gatherings, of getting on airplanes, of eating at restaurants, imprinted even after restrictions are lifted. Though not worth the tragedy that precipitates it, the pandemic will effect substantial change, he said.
“It’s not an exaggeration to say that if air quality is good for one year, 100,000 people will not die unnecessarily,” he said.
Americans are realizing, for instance, their reliance on goods that come from far away and are beginning to see value in reasserting control over their supply chains. People in Maine, where Jackson currently lives, are sourcing their lettuce from local greenhouses now that deliveries from California are disrupted. That change in consumer habits might endure even after delivery trucks are rolling again.
“The notion that we don’t care where in the world something comes from is over,” he said.
But the most lasting outcome might be that this generation will adopt the mentality of people who lived through the Great Depression, he said
“What this is doing is forcing us to be more introspective in our lives,” said Jackson. “I think there will be a mental evolution of our society, one that’s more cautious and conservative of our resources.”
Weiss does not hold out great hope for the wholesale lifestyle changes that need to happen for global warming to permanently attenuate. He sees emissions returning to strength once the economy does. He does have a more modest hope, that one effect will live on even when life turns back to normal.
“The only silver lining I’m hoping for is that the coronavirus crisis may help the public to again have respect for the value of science,” he said.
- Robert Monroe
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