Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1289/EHP173 |
Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe | |
Lake, Iain R.1; Jones, Natalia R.1; Agnew, Maureen1; Goodess, Clare M.1; Giorgi, Filippo2; Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda3,4; Semenov, Mikhail A.5; Solomon, Fabien; Storkey, Jonathan5; Vautard, Robert3,4; Epstein, Michelle M.6 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES
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ISSN | 0091-6765 |
EISSN | 1552-9924 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 125期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Italy; France; Austria |
英文摘要 | Background: Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. Objectives: We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe. Methods: A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. Results: Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. Conclusions: Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000395714400019 |
WOS关键词 | RAGWEED AMBROSIA-ARTEMISIIFOLIA ; GA2LEN SKIN-TEST ; COMMON RAGWEED ; HEALTH ; AEROALLERGENS ; MANAGEMENT ; DISEASE ; OZONE ; CO2 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Toxicology |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Toxicology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/24190 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England; 2.Abdus Salaam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Earth Syst Phys Sect, Trieste, Italy; 3.UVSQ, CEA CNRS, LCSE, IPSL,UMR 8212, Gif Sur Yvette, France; 4.Inst Natl Environm Ind & Risques, Parc Technol ALATA, Verneuil En Halatte, France; 5.Rothamsted Res, Harpenden, Herts, England; 6.Med Univ Vienna, Div Immunol Allergy & Infect Dis, Expt Allergy, Dept Dermatol, Vienna, Austria |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lake, Iain R.,Jones, Natalia R.,Agnew, Maureen,et al. Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,2017,125(3). |
APA | Lake, Iain R..,Jones, Natalia R..,Agnew, Maureen.,Goodess, Clare M..,Giorgi, Filippo.,...&Epstein, Michelle M..(2017).Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe.ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,125(3). |
MLA | Lake, Iain R.,et al."Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe".ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 125.3(2017). |
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