资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of historical (1990-2010) global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) emissions including the consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2.5, PM10), as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The estimates were developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where source-and region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e. kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, refuse burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 172 source regions (as well as international shipping), presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees longitude-latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and, consequently, CO2 emissions, but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North America, and the Pacific region. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g. European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30% in 1990 to well below 15% in 2010, while Asia's contribution grew from just over