Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1289/EHP634 |
Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality | |
Gosling, Simon N.1; Hondula, David M.2; Bunker, Aditi3,4; Ibarreta, Dolores5; Liu, Junguo6; Zhang, Xinxin7; Sauerborn, Rainer4 | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES |
ISSN | 0091-6765 |
EISSN | 1552-9924 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 125期号:8 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; USA; Germany; Spain; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | BACKGROUND: Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat -related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to-adaptation uncertainty" (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. OBJECTIVES: This study had three aims: a) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. METHODS: We estimated impacts for 2070-2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. RESULTS: The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can he as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000413790600018 |
WOS关键词 | TEMPERATURE-RELATED MORTALITY ; COLD-RELATED MORTALITY ; NEW-YORK-CITY ; UNITED-STATES ; EUROPEAN CITIES ; HUMAN HEALTH ; PART II ; IMPACTS ; DEATHS ; TIME |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Toxicology |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Toxicology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/23830 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England; 2.Arizona State Univ, Sch Geog Sci & Urban Planning, Tempe, AZ USA; 3.Heidelberg Univ, Network Aging Res, Heidelberg, Germany; 4.Heidelberg Univ, Inst Publ Hlth, Heidelberg, Germany; 5.European Commiss, JRC, Seville, Spain; 6.South Univ Sci & Technol China, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China; 7.Beijing Forestry Univ, Sch Nat Conservat, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gosling, Simon N.,Hondula, David M.,Bunker, Aditi,et al. Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,2017,125(8). |
APA | Gosling, Simon N..,Hondula, David M..,Bunker, Aditi.,Ibarreta, Dolores.,Liu, Junguo.,...&Sauerborn, Rainer.(2017).Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality.ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,125(8). |
MLA | Gosling, Simon N.,et al."Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality".ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 125.8(2017). |
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