Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
Trade Networks and Economic Fluctuations in Asia | |
[unavailable] | |
2018-04-06 | |
出版年 | 2018 |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | 国际 |
领域 | 气候变化 |
英文摘要 |
![]() The People's Republic of China (PRC) and Japan are at the heart of two trade communities in Asia. We present a new methodology, based on tensor decomposition, to map dynamic trade networks and assess their strength in spreading economic fluctuations at different periods of time in Asia. Using monthly merchandise import and export data across 33 Asian economies, together with the United Sates, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, we detect the modularity structure of the evolving network and we identify communities and central nodes inside each of them. Our findings show that data are well represented by two communities, in which the People's Republic of China and Japan play the major role. We then analyze the synchronization between GDP growth and trade, and apply our model to the prediction of economic fluctuations. Our findings show that the model leads to an increase in predictive accuracy, as higher order interactions between countries are taken into account. WORKING PAPER NO: 832 |
URL | 查看原文 |
来源平台 | Asian Development Bank |
文献类型 | 科技报告 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/235060 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | [unavailable]. Trade Networks and Economic Fluctuations in Asia,2018. |
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文件名称/大小 | 文献类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
adbi-wp832.pdf(2805KB) | 科技报告 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 下载 |
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