Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.foreco.2018.02.045 |
Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Andalusia: Identification of priority areas for intervention | |
Duque-Lazo, Joaquin1; Maria Navarro-Cerrillo, Rafael1; van Gils, Hein2; Groen, Thomas A.3 | |
2018-05-15 | |
发表期刊 | FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT
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ISSN | 0378-1127 |
EISSN | 1872-7042 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 417页码:122-136 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Spain; South Africa; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | Since the mid-20th century, trees in the Andalusian oak dehesa and forests have exhibited stress that often ends in the death of the tree. These events have been associated with Phytophthora cinnamomi, a soil-borne root pathogen, which causes root rot, bark cankers, decay and mortality - known as oak decline. Phytophthora cinnamomi is most virulent under high ambient temperatures combined with moist soils, i.e., in Mediterranean areas. We used presence/absence point locations of the Andalusian Network for Damage Monitoring in Forest Ecosystems (RED SEDA) pathogen survey and four categories of environmental variables - meteorological, edaphic, topographic and tree cover - to accurately predict Phytophthora cinnamomi current and future potential distribution within Andalusia, for a range of climate change scenarios, using ensemble species distribution models (SDMs). We assessed which categories of environmental variables explained the distribution of the pathogen, obtained accurate predictions for the current potential distribution of Phytophthora cinnamomi (AUC > 0.95, TSS > 0.70, Kappa > 0.65) and forecasted its future potential distribution. Subsequently, we classified the sites of the pathogen survey within the RED SEDA network in three zones according to the already-recorded presence of the pathogen and the current and future predicted probability of occurrence. Finally, we suggested phytosanitary management strategies for each zone. |
英文关键词 | biomod2 Ensemble species distribution modelling Mediterranean oak woodlands Oak Decline Phytophthora cinnamomi |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000430778900011 |
WOS关键词 | SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; QUERCUS-ILEX ; SOUTHWEST SPAIN ; SW SPAIN ; MANAGEMENT ; FOREST ; CONSERVATION ; DISEASE ; DEATH |
WOS类目 | Forestry |
WOS研究方向 | Forestry |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/23354 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Cordoba, Sch Agr & Forestry, Dept Forestry,ERSAF DendrodatLab, Lab Dendrochronol Silviculture & Climate Change, Edf Leonardo Vinci,Campus Rabanales S-N, E-14071 Cordoba, Spain; 2.Univ Pretoria, Fac Nat & Agr Sci, Dept Geog Geoinformat & Meteorol, Private Bag X20, ZA-0028 Hatfield, South Africa; 3.Univ Twente, Fac Geoinformat Sci & Earth Observat ITC, Dept Nat Resources, Hengelosestr 99, NL-7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Duque-Lazo, Joaquin,Maria Navarro-Cerrillo, Rafael,van Gils, Hein,et al. Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Andalusia: Identification of priority areas for intervention[J]. FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT,2018,417:122-136. |
APA | Duque-Lazo, Joaquin,Maria Navarro-Cerrillo, Rafael,van Gils, Hein,&Groen, Thomas A..(2018).Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Andalusia: Identification of priority areas for intervention.FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT,417,122-136. |
MLA | Duque-Lazo, Joaquin,et al."Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Andalusia: Identification of priority areas for intervention".FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 417(2018):122-136. |
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