GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1016/j.foreco.2018.09.027
Predicting increasing high severity area burned for three forested regions in the western United States using extreme value theory
Keyser, Alisa R.1; Westerling, A. LeRoy2
2019-01-15
发表期刊FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT
ISSN0378-1127
EISSN1872-7042
出版年2019
卷号432页码:694-706
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

More than 70 years of fire suppression by federal land management agencies has interrupted fire regimes in much of the western United States. The result of missed fire cycles is a buildup of both surface and canopy fuels in many forest ecosystems, increasing the risk of severe fire. The frequency and size of fires has increased in recent decades, as has the area burned with high severity in some ecosystems. A number of studies have examined controls on high severity fire occurrence, but none have yet determined what controls the extent of high severity fire. We developed statistical models predicting high severity area burned for the western United States and three sub-regions--the Northern Rocky Mountains, Sierra Nevada Mountains, and Southwest. A simple model with maximum temperature the month of fire, annual normalized moisture deficit and location explains area burned in high severity fire in our west-wide model, with the exception of years with especially large areas burned with high severity fire: 1988, 2002. With respect to mitigation or management of high severity fire, understanding what drives extreme fire years is critical. For the sub-regional models, topography, spring temperature and snowpack condition, and vegetation condition class variables improved our prediction of high severity burned area in extreme fire years. Fire year climate is critical to predicting area burned in high severity fire, especially in extreme fire years. These models can be used for scenario analyses and impact assessments to aid management in mitigating negative impacts of high severity fire.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000455068700068
WOS关键词PONDEROSA PINE FORESTS ; SIERRA-NEVADA ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FIRE SEVERITY ; STATISTICAL-MODEL ; WILDFIRE ; CALIFORNIA ; PATTERNS ; TRENDS ; IMPACT
WOS类目Forestry
WOS研究方向Forestry
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/23345
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Calif Merced, Sierra Nevada Res Inst, Merced, CA 95343 USA;
2.Univ Calif Merced, Ernest & Julio Gallo Management Program, Merced, CA 95343 USA
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Keyser, Alisa R.,Westerling, A. LeRoy. Predicting increasing high severity area burned for three forested regions in the western United States using extreme value theory[J]. FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT,2019,432:694-706.
APA Keyser, Alisa R.,&Westerling, A. LeRoy.(2019).Predicting increasing high severity area burned for three forested regions in the western United States using extreme value theory.FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT,432,694-706.
MLA Keyser, Alisa R.,et al."Predicting increasing high severity area burned for three forested regions in the western United States using extreme value theory".FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 432(2019):694-706.
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