Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1289/EHP131 |
Historical Prediction Modeling Approach for Estimating Long-Term Concentrations of PM2.5 in Cohort Studies before the 1999 Implementation of Widespread Monitoring | |
Kim, Sun-Young1,2; Olives, Casey2; Sheppard, Lianne2,3; Sampson, Paul D.4; Larson, Timothy V.2,5; Keller, Joshua P.3; Kaufman, Joel D.2,6,7 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES |
ISSN | 0091-6765 |
EISSN | 1552-9924 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 125期号:1 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Korea; USA |
英文摘要 | INTRODUCTION: Recent cohort studies have used exposure prediction models to estimate the association between long-term residential concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and health. Because these prediction models rely on PM2.5 monitoring data, predictions for times before extensive spatial monitoring present a challenge to understanding long-term exposure effects. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Federal Reference Method (FRM) network for PM2.5 was established in 1999. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated a novel statistical approach to produce high-quality exposure predictions from 1980 through 2010 in the continental United States for epidemiological applications. METHODS: We developed spatio-temporal prediction models using geographic predictors and annual average PM2.5 data from 1999 through 2010 from the FRM and the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) networks. Temporal trends before 1999 were estimated by using a) extrapolation based on PM2.5 data in FRM/IMPROVE, b) PM2.5 sulfate data in the Clean Air Status and Trends Network, and c) visibility data across the Weather Bureau Army Navy network. We validated the models using PM2.5 data collected before 1999 from IMPROVE, California Air Resources Board dichotomous sampler monitoring (CARB dichot), the Children's Health Study (CHS), and the Inhalable Particulate Network (IPN). RESULTS: In our validation using pre-1999 data, the prediction model performed well across three trend estimation approaches when validated using IMPROVE and CHS data (R-2 = 0.84-0.91) with lower R-2 values in early years. Model performance using CARB dichot and IPN data was worse (R-2 = 0.00-0.85) most likely because of fewer monitoring sites and inconsistent sampling methods. CONCLUSIONS: Our prediction modeling approach will allow health effects estimation associated with long-term exposures to PM2.5 over extended time periods <= 30 years. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000392195000006 |
WOS关键词 | LAND-USE REGRESSION ; PARTICULATE AIR-POLLUTION ; UNITED-STATES ; EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT ; ATHEROSCLEROSIS ; MORTALITY ; HEALTH ; VARIABILITY ; DISEASE ; FINE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Toxicology |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Toxicology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/23274 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Seoul Natl Univ, Inst Hlth & Environm, Seoul, South Korea; 2.Univ Washington, Dept Environm & Occupat Hlth Sci, 4225 Roosevelt Way NE, Seattle, WA 98105 USA; 3.Univ Washington, Dept Biostat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 4.Univ Washington, Dept Stat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 5.Univ Washington, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 6.Univ Washington, Dept Epidemiol, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 7.Univ Washington, Dept Med, Seattle, WA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kim, Sun-Young,Olives, Casey,Sheppard, Lianne,et al. Historical Prediction Modeling Approach for Estimating Long-Term Concentrations of PM2.5 in Cohort Studies before the 1999 Implementation of Widespread Monitoring[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,2017,125(1). |
APA | Kim, Sun-Young.,Olives, Casey.,Sheppard, Lianne.,Sampson, Paul D..,Larson, Timothy V..,...&Kaufman, Joel D..(2017).Historical Prediction Modeling Approach for Estimating Long-Term Concentrations of PM2.5 in Cohort Studies before the 1999 Implementation of Widespread Monitoring.ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,125(1). |
MLA | Kim, Sun-Young,et al."Historical Prediction Modeling Approach for Estimating Long-Term Concentrations of PM2.5 in Cohort Studies before the 1999 Implementation of Widespread Monitoring".ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 125.1(2017). |
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